USC Trojans Win Total Future: Will Jayden Maiava Lead USC to Nine Wins?
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Tue Jul 28, 2026, 4:18 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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The date is July 28, and I have already placed the biggest NCAA Football future of my life for this upcoming season. Now, I'm pretty much strictly a one unit guy, as two unit wagers make up less than half a percent of my total bets. However, over the course of the past five betting seasons, two unit plays have hit at a 63.3% clip, with an incredible 16-4 (80%) record on our 2U College Football plays. Let's hope we can bring home another one this season, as we turn our attention to the USC Trojans, and whether or not they go over or under their 8.5 listed win total.
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USC Trojans Football Team Preview & Schedule
Lincoln Riley and USC have one of the toughest schedules in all of college football for the 2026 season
Trojans Offense
Once again, Lincoln Riley and the Trojans start Jayden Maiava at quarterback. He threw for over 3,700 yards last season with 24 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. But that was also with the benefit of a MUCH easier schedule. Phil Steele has the Trojans listed with the toughest schedule overall, and the third hardest schedule in all of College Football.
The offensive line returns, which is great, but I still don't have faith in teams led by Riley to really push for the National Championship. Let alone the CFP with the games they have to play.
Trojans Defense
After years of bad defensive play, the Trojans actually return eight starters to a unit that was outside the top 50 in points allowed last year. And now they face a plethora of potent offenses, who know they'll have to score facing USC. While the Trojans defense will be better than in past years, the offense will be carrying the load.
USC Trojans 2026 Schedule
- 8/30: vs. San Jose State
- 9/5: vs. Fresno State
- 9/12: vs. Louisiana
- 9/19: @ Rutgers
- 9/26: vs. Oregon
- 10/3: vs. Washington
- 10/10: @ Penn State
- 10/24: @ Wisconsin
- 10/31: vs. Ohio State (Buckeyes off Bye)
- 11/14: @ Indiana (Both Teams off Bye)
- 11/21: vs. Maryland
- 11/28: @ UCLA
That is a daunting schedule, and a big reason why I will be fading this team, and taking the under on their win total this upcoming season.
USC Trojans Win Total Picks and Predictions
All eyes will be on Jayden Maiava this season as the Heisman hopeful leads the Trojans for his second full season as the starter
USC Trojans Record Prediction: 7-5 (4-5)
Best Bet: USC Trojans Under 8.5 Wins (-125) 2U Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
For the Trojans to go under 8.5 wins, we just need four losses. If they finish 8-4, we've done our job. But can we find those four losses on this schedule? Absolutely.
For starters, they play the three toughest teams in the Big Ten: Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana. Sure, they get two of those games at home, where they were 6-0 last year. However, Oregon won't be changing time zones to come to LA, and Ohio State is good enough that it won't matter. Plus, the Buckeyes are off a bye week before heading to USC. Lastly, playing in Bloomington is a death sentence, especially with both teams well rested but only one having to travel across the country.
I see them losing all three of those games, but at the very least two. Let's find more losses.
USC also plays a tough Big Ten schedule excluding the three giants. They host Washington after the Ducks, then head out to Penn State, wrapping up a very tough three game stretch. Plus, they'll go to Camp Randall to face Wisconsin, they play Rutgers across the country in a clear look ahead spot prior to hosting the Ducks, and ending the season against UCLA on the road could be tougher than they imagine.
Point being, the floor for this USC Trojans team could potentially be a 6-6 record in my eyes, but all we need is four losses to cash this win total under for two units.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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