Dowdell's line is simply too low. He's cleared 50+ yards in 5/6 games this season, and has done so in as little as 6 carries. Now, volume shouldn't be an issue, as he has double the amount of carries as the next most Husker rusher, and also averages over 12 touches per game for over 55 yards.
I see Nebraska chewing the clock, giving Dowdell plenty of work on the ground in order to leave Rourke and the Hoosiers offense on the sidelines. Dowdell has been the Huskers' leading rusher in terms of touches in all six matchups, and has solidified himself as the go-to running back. Indiana's front 7 will be tested heavily in this game, and I trust the Nebraska offensive line to control the trenches.
Give me Dowdell to clear this number, especially considering the rest of the market has 47.5 or 50.5 listed. I also have a play on the total, so check out my full game analysis below.
I'll admit, this one isn't pretty. This guy is playing like a Hesiman caliber QB, he'd a dual threat stud, but he is going into a hostile environment. Tennessee beat the Crimson Tide the last time they were in Knoxville, and with their defense, I could see them doing it again. The Volunteers sack the QB twice each game, which counts for lost yardage in college. Their defense hasn't allowed a QB to run for more than 22 yards in a game this season, and they've done a good job of handling prolific rushers.
Michael Hawkins Jr. of Oklahoma averaged just 1.8 yards per carry in their game, and overall the Vols are holding rushers to just 2.3 yards per carry. Milroe has cashed this line in 3/6 games this season, but has failed to do so the past two weeks. I trust the Tennessee defense to spy on Milroe, keep him contained inside the pocket, allowing for minimal yards with his legs. Tennessee will force Alabama to beat them through the air.
This is a 2 Unit play for me, and let me keep it simple.
Colorado can't stop anybody.
That's it, that's the cap. Not really, but I think we see tons of points on both sides in this game. Arizona is sort of one dimensional offensively. They have Conley at RB, or McMillan at wideout. Fifta finds Conley plenty, and against a defense like Colorado's, this line is way too low.
The Arizona RB is clearly a three down back. He leads the team in rushing yards by far, and has 22 receptions this season, compared to the rest of the RB room that just has 10. Now, Conley has cleared this line in 4/6 games this year, including all 3 at home. He's caught 2+ passes in 5/6 games, and has 11 catches over the past two weeks, meaning he is more involved in the pass game.
He averages 7 yards per catch, but the Buffaloes struggle against receiving RBs. Running backs have cleared this line in 5/6 games against the Buffaloes, allowing an 18+ yard reception to a RB in all 6 games. Conley will be super involved in an offense that will see tons of action, so for 2 units, I'm willing to bet he catches a couple dump offs.
I'm also on his rushing yards as Colorado can't stop anyone between the tackles. The Buffaloes allowed 160 rushing yards per game and over 4.2 yards per rush on the road. He is an explosive back, clearing this line in 3/6 games this year, including all 3 at home where he posted 90+ yards on the ground. Conley has double digit carries in all 6 games, and runs for 7.3 yards per rush at home. Give me this guy to do it all this weekend.
Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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