Villanova vs North Carolina Prediction & Picks: Will the Heels Hold Off the Wildcats in the Bahamas?
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Last Update: Thu Nov 23, 2023, 12:15 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Today, Villanova and North Carolina will meet on the hardwood for the first time since their memorable March Madness encounter in 2016, with a place in the Battle 4 Atlantis championship game on the line (2:30 pm ET, ESPN).
When they last met, something more significant was at stake at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. In an ending that will live on in March Madness highlight montages for years to come, Kris Jenkins responded to Marcus Paige's wild game-tying three with the buzzer-beater heard 'round the college basketball world to give the Wildcats their first national championship since 1985.
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Quite a lot has happened since that magical Monday night. North Carolina cut down the nets the following year, then Villanova made it two titles in three years with a dominant run in 2018. Hall of Fame coaches Jay Wright and Roy Williams are both now retired, and the Tar Heels and Wildcats are looking for big bounce-back seasons after missing out on the Big Dance last season.
Who will move on to face either Memphis or Arkansas in tomorrow's championship game in Nassau? The Tar Heels, who dispatched Northern Iowa by 22 yesterday, are favored by a small margin.
Villanova vs North Carolina Odds
Odds are courtesy of Bovada.
Spread
- Villanova +2.5 (-115)
- North Carolina -2.5 (-105)
Over/Under
- Over 146.5 (-110)
- Under 146.5 (-110)
Moneyline
- Villanova +120
- North Carolina -140
Villanova vs North Carolina Prediction and Picks
Prediction: North Carolina to win
Picks: North Carolina ML (-140 at Bovada) & North Carolina team total over 74.5 points (-115 at Bovada)
After being upset by Penn last week, Villanova responded by giving up just 40 points against Maryland in a 17-point win last Friday, then kicked off their stay in the Bahamas with a solid 85-69 win over Texas Tech, who could end up in the NCAA Tournament after missing out last season.
Top Players for Villanova
- Justin Moore: 16.4 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 2.4 APG
- TJ Bamba: 10.8 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.0 APG
- Eric Dixon: 10.6 PPG, 7.0 RPG
- Tyler Burton: 10.4 PPG, 7.6 RPG
Against Texas Tech, Dixon had 19 points, six rebounds, and three steals, while Moore had 18 points, six rebounds, five assists, and two steals.
However, while the Wildcats scored 85 points and won by 16, it wasn't all smooth sailing. For the fourth straight game, they failed to shoot 50% or better from the field, making only 43.1% of their shots, including just 47.1% of their two-point shots.
Top Players for North Carolina
- Armando Bacot: 19.5 PPG, 12.0 RPG, 2.0 BPG
- RJ Davis: 14.0 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 2.8 APG
- Harrison Ingram: 13.0 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 2.0 APG, 44.4% 3PT
- Cormac Ryan: 9.0 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 2.8 APG
Like Villanova did against Texas Tech, North Carolina shot poorly on two-point shots against Northern Iowa, making just 14 of 35 (40.0%) of their twos against the Panthers. But they countered that by going 12 of 26 (46.2%) from three, with Ingram nailing 4 of his six attempts and Davis and Ryan hitting three apiece.
That was a highly, highly encouraging perimeter performance, given that the Tar Heels had made just 18 of 58 (31.0%) from deep in their first three games of the season.
Can they stay on target from outside today? Penn shot 41.2% (7 of 17) from three in their win over Villanova, while Texas Tech was 14 of 36 (38.9%) from behind the line against the Wildcats.
While Villanova have already dealt with a few challenging games thus far this season, North Carolina's first four games were against UNI, Radford, Lehigh, and UC Riverside, who come in 138th, 159th, 262nd, and 260th at KenPom.
Though there isn't a lot that can be gleaned from UNC's first four games, I'm vibing with them a bit more here than I am the Wildcats.
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