We are going back to the well in this matchup between the UCF Knights and No. 8 Houston Cougars. On Saturday, one of my biggest plays of the year was Cincinnati's team total under, due to Houston returning home after allowing 70+ points in back to back games. They were due for a massive defensive showing and that is exactly what happened, as the Cougars allowed just 54 points and cashed the under 60.5 team total prop.
We are running it back tonight by trusting the Cougars lockdown defense against a UCF team coming off an impressive 88 to 80 home win over Texas Tech on Saturday. I am expecting some regression after what was their biggest win since beating Kansas on January 3rd.
This marks the Knights 12th game against a top 100 opponent. In those 12 games, UCF has scored under 66 points just once. That came against Iowa State on January 20th, when they were held to 57 points on the road. That loss followed a seven point loss to Arizona, where they scored 77 points. After their win over Kansas, they were then held to 76 points in a loss to Oklahoma State. Why does this matter?
Tempo Tempo Tempo
All three of those teams love to run. Oklahoma State ranks sixth in pace at home, Arizona is the 25th fastest team in the country and Iowa State ranks 99th in pace at home this season. Inside their home gym, Houston ranks as the 37th slowest team in the country. The Knights are not going to see the same number of possessions they had in those matchups.
Houston at home is allowing just 53.6 points per game and 61.7 overall, which still sits under this number. The Cougars own the top rated home defense in the country. They rank first in turnover percentage defense, fifth in two point percentage defense and 27th in block percentage. They also stay disciplined, ranking 78th in free throw rate defense.
Tonight marks only UCF's sixth true road game of the season. In the five they have already played, the Knights have struggled to get to the free throw line, protect the basketball and generate offensive rebounds. These are all areas Houston is built to shut down. I do not see the Knights putting together another explosive performance, especially with how well Houston plays at home and the pace this game is likely to be played at. Under.
