Saturday college hoops, nothing beats it. To kick off this beautiful Saturday slate, we have a Big 12 matchup in Houston, where the Cincinnati Bearcats look to keep their winning ways alive against the No. 10 Cougars. Houston will be looking to clean up its game after allowing a lot of points over the last two contests, most notably the 90 points surrendered in a loss to Texas Tech a week ago. Back at home, this sets up as a spot where the Cougars can reassert themselves.
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Houston is in dire need of getting back to shutting teams down with its suffocating defense. This matchup feels like the perfect opportunity, returning home where the Cougars rank number one in points allowed and where the defense consistently shows up. They are also coming off back to back games in which opponents scored 70 or more points. Last Saturday, Texas Tech dropped 90, the most Houston has allowed since December 20, when Arkansas scored 85.
I am sticking with my knee jerk lean in this spot by playing the Bearcats team total under. Haslametrics gives Houston a massive home court advantage, ranking the Cougars 58th in away home splits, while Cincinnati ranks 35th worst. Houston is a perfect 10 0 at home this season and owns the number 1 defense in the country. This unit thrives at forcing turnovers, ranking first nationally, while also limiting fouls, protecting the paint, and blocking shots.
Cincinnati offense has been abysmal all season, regardless of venue. Through 21 games, Bart Torvik ranks the Bearcats 280th in effective field goal percentage, 337th in three point percentage, and 346th in free throw percentage. When isolating true road games, it gets even worse. In five true road contests, Cincinnati ranks 333rd in effective field goal percentage offense, 352nd in free throw rate offense, 338th in three point percentage, and 351st in free throw percentage.
How is this team supposed to score 60 points? The pace of this game will have your grandparents begging for it to speed up. Cincinnati ranks 284th in tempo on the road, while Houston ranks 310th at home. The team total has not dropped yet, but it should land around 57.5 or 58.5. If this number shows 60 or higher, that is a misprice. Houston should completely suffocate the Bearcats in this spot.
