#11 South Florida vs. #6 Louisville Picks and Predictions: Round of 64
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Wed Mar 18, 2026, 4:48 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
ncaab
The Louisville Cardinals and Pat Kelsey have their hands full in the Round of 64 on Thursday as they take on the American Athletic Conference Champions, the South Florida Bulls. Coming in as an 11 seed, the Bulls might be a bit under seeded in my eyes, as I think they were worthy of being on the nine or 10 line, however, we will see what they are made of against an ACC team. Let's check out our CBB experts' favorite picks in this contest.
Check out our March Madness Betting Guide to get in on all the action this month!
Best Bet: South Florida +4.5 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Go check out what else I've got on my daily card, and view the latest odds at the best online sportsbooks.
#11 South Florida Bulls vs. #6 Louisville Cardinals NCAA Basketball Insights
Mikel Brown Jr. will be OUT against South Florida on Thursday
The biggest news surrounding this game is the fact that Louisville will be without their stud freshman, Mikel Brown Jr. He has been dealing with a back injury for a while now, and will officially sit out this entire weekend, missing the opening game against South Florida and a potential Round of 32 game if the Cardinals move on. However, Louisville has not been playing great basketball down the stretch. They split games with SMU (who plays in the First Four), split with Miami (who is seeded lower than the Cardinals), and lost to both North Carolina and Clemson.
As for the Bulls, they have won 11 straight and I don't see them stopping on Thursday. This might be one of the longest and most athletic teams that never found themselves ranked this season. Sure, they didn't play the toughest of schedules, but they face a Cardinals team that severely struggles away from home, and I think that will come into play in this game.
Matchup Information – South Florida vs. Louisville – March 19
- Venue & Location: KeyBank Center (Buffalo, NY)
- Date: Thursday, March 19, 2026
- Kick Off: 1:30 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: TNT
South Florida vs. Louisville Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of March 18, 2026 at 4:08 p.m. eastern. Sign up today with and get a $1,250 deposit bonus, as well as 50 slot spins immediately. Lucky Rebel Sportsbook offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.
Spread
- South Florida +4.5 (-110)
- Louisville -4.5 (-110)
Moneyline
- South Florida +157
- Louisville -193
Total
- Over 164.5 (-110)
- Under 164.5 (-110)
#11 South Florida vs. #6 Louisville NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions
Izaiyah Nelson and South Florida are my pick to be this year's Cinderella during the NCAA Tournament
South Florida vs. Louisville Prediction: South Florida Wins Outright, Over 164.5
Best Bet: South Florida +4.5 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Now if you tuned into The Morning Spread earlier this week, you would know we have been on South Florida +6.5 and Over 162.5 since the lines opened on Sunday. Either way, I think both numbers are still more than playable, and I like the Bulls outright as well.
Louisville ranks fourth in the nation in three point attempts per game, shooting over 37.5% from deep at home. However, they struggle to shoot anywhere else. The Cardinals eFG% drops from 58.5% to 54% when away from home, and they only shoot 33.3% from deep. For a team that relies heavily on the three ball, if it's not falling, it's bad news for the Cardinals. Defensively, the Cardinals give up far too many free throws (while not getting to the charity stripe themselves) as well as allowing way too many offensive rebounds. South Florida is elite in those categories.
The Bulls rank top seven in the nation in offensive rebound rate, and are also top 50 at getting to the stripe where they shoot over 74% as a team. South Florida also ranks top 45 in adjusted defensive efficiency, top 50 in opponent eFG% and top 55 in forcing turnovers. This is a matchup nightmare for the Cardinals, and despite the Bulls falling into the category of the "trendy dog", I am confident in them beating the Bulls and making a deep run in March.
For the real sickos, South Florida to reach the Sweet 16 is +750 and they are 25-1 to reach the Elite Eight.
Still Didn't Get Your NCAA Basketball Fix?
Here at Betting News, we offer Free Expert Picks for every major sports league. We also host daily streams on our Twitch Channel with our best bets, as well as sweat out games on Playback! Be sure to tune into everything we have going on at our Youtube, TikTok, and X pages as well, and follow my personal twitter @Shaggy_Bets for my full daily card.
- Transfer Portal Update
- 2025-2026 NCAA Basketball Preview
- SEC Basketball Preview
- Big 12 Conference Picks
- Big Ten Conference Predictions
- ACC Basketball Preview
More NCAAB News
NCAAB Betting News
NCAA Expands March Madness Tournament to 76 Teams Beginning in 2027
NCAAB Betting News
NCAA Basketball Transfer Portal Update: Portal Entries and New Signings
NCAAB Betting News
NCAA Basketball Coaching Changes: Where Are They Now?
NCAAB Betting News
#2 UConn vs. #1 Michigan Picks and Predictions: National Championship
Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly
Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER
Check Out All of Our Betting Resources at Betting News
Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Betting News makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.