Best NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions: First Four Best Bets

The NCAA Tournament technically kicks off with the Round of 64 beginning on Thursday, but before that, we still need to fill a few spots in the field! The First Four takes place in Dayton, Ohio on Tuesday and Wednesday as we solidify the last four teams into the Big Dance. Tonight, we have NC State taking on Texas, while Howard goes against UMBC. And tomorrow, Prairie View and Lehigh duke it out while Miami (OH) faces SMU. Let's get into our favorite NCAA Basketball picks for the first four games!

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Best NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions March 17

#16 UMBC Retrievers vs. #16 Howard Bison NCAA Basketball Picks

Best Bet: Howard ML (-113) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook

The Bison are a small favorite today against UMBC. While their twitter admin has been excelling off the court, the Retrievers have had tons of success on the court. They have won 11 straight games to make the Big Dance, but I think it comes to an end tonight. Howard will look to push the pace and force UMBC to play more defensive possessions.

Howard should dominate the offensive glass and get to the free throw line a ton, while successfully forcing turnovers on defense. These teams played literally the easiest and second easiest schedules in college hoops this year, but Howard is more battled tested outside of the MEAC. The Bison rank No. 234 in non conference strength of schedule, while the Retrievers are bottom 30 in that category. I think that could be the difference maker tonight.

#11 Texas Longhorns vs. #11 NC State Wolfpack NCAA Basketball Picks

Darrion Williams and NC State need a win tonight against Texas to make the Round of 64

Best Bets: Texas/NC State Over 158.5 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook

Who doesn't love rooting for points as two bubble teams try to save their season? We already saw these two teams go head to head in the Maui Invitational 5th place game back in November, and there was plenty of offense there. We saw 199 total points scored as the Longhorns won 102-97. This time around, I lean with the Wolfpack to get the job done, but I'll back both offenses instead.

Both teams are significantly better on that side of the ball than they are on defense. NC State pushes the pace, ranks top 90 in tempo and 3P Rate while shooting over 38.5% from beyond the arc. They also take great care of the basketball, but drop into the bottom 100 in opponent eFG%. The Longhorns can't defend the perimeter, allowing opponents to shoot over 36% from downtown. They also are bottom 20 in forcing turnovers and bottom 60 in both opponent 3P% and FT Rate defense. However, they crash the offensive glass and get to the stripe plenty.

All of that should result in plenty of points.

#16 Prairie View A&M Panthers vs. #16 Lehigh Mountain Hawks NCAA Basketball Picks

Best Bets: Lehigh -3.5 (-106) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook

The Mountain Hawks are laying 3.5 against the Panthers and for good reason. Prairie View finished No. 8 in the SWAC, but miraculously made their way through the conference tournament to make the tournament. However, this is where they stop dancing. While Lehigh doesn't crash the offensive glass, they shoot it extremely well from downtown and have won six straight to get to this point.

The Panthers' offense is laughable, especially from inside the arc, where they shoot just 47% as a team. But that's where over 70% of their offense comes from. Defensively, they are bottom 30 in offensive rebounds allowed and FT Rate defense, and are No. 248 in opponent 3P%.

Give me Lehigh to earn a date with the Florida Gators in the Round of 64.

#11 Miami (OH) Redhawks vs. #11 SMU Mustangs NCAA Basketball Picks

Miami (OH) has lost just once all year long, but their season would end with another against SMU in the First Four

Best Bets: Miami (OH) +6.5 (-107) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook

I can't bring myself to bet against the Redhawks, who should already be in the Round of 64 in my eyes. The fact that we were even debating leaving out a team that went undefeated during the regular season is mind boggling, and the Redhawks can shut up all the haters with an outright win over the Ponies.

SMU has not played well down the stretch, losing four of their last five to teams that aren't very good. I've lost faith in this team, and all the intangibles lie with the team from Miami. The Redhawks win this outright and then go on to upset the Tennessee Volunteers in the Round of 64.

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