San Diego State vs. Utah State Prediction & Best Bets: Departing Schools Meet for Mountain West Title
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Last Update: Sat Mar 14, 2026, 11:34 am ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Next season, San Diego State vs. Utah State will be a matchup in the new-look Pac-12. Today, the Aztecs and Aggies will meet for the final time as members of the Mountain West, and it will be for all the marbles at the Thomas and Mack Center in Las Vegas (6 p.m. ET, CBS).
This will be San Diego State's 17th appearance in the Mountain West tournament championship game, and an eighth tournament title will send the second-seeded Aztecs (22-10) to the NCAA tournament for the sixth straight season. A loss, however, would likely send another bubble team to the Big Dance, given SDSU's overall resume.
So, the March Madness fate of a middling power conference team (Auburn? Missouri? Oklahoma? SMU? Texas?) likely rests on top seed Utah State (27-6), who is looking for its third Mountain West tournament title in five championship game appearances.
The previous four appearances were also against San Diego State, with the Aggies winning in 2019 and 2020 (the latter against a 30-1 team) and the Aztecs winning in 2021 and 2023.
The fifth and final San Diego State vs. Utah State Mountain West title matchup was booked last night with the Aztecs edging third-seeded New Mexico on BJ Davis's basket in the final seconds, while Utah State didn't face any such stress in a 79-66 win over fifth-seeded Nevada.
Each of the four previous championship contests between these two teams was a low-scoring game, but will today's tilt follow the same script? At Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks, the total is in the low 140s, with Utah State favored by a slight margin.
San Diego State vs. Utah State Odds
Odds are from Lucky Rebel.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total | Implied Probability | True Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego State | +1.5 (-105) | +105 | O143.5 (-113) | 48.78% | 52.46% |
| Utah State | -1.5 (-115) | -128 | U143.5 (-107) | 56.14% | 47.54% |
San Diego State vs. Utah State Prediction and Analysis
As noted in yesterday's New Mexico vs. San Diego State breakdown, this has not been a vintage season for the Aztecs on the defensive end.
But as the saying goes, form is temporary and class is permanent. And SDSU has tightened the screws when the occasion called for it, holding both Colorado State and New Mexico to 62 points apiece.
Against the Rams, the Aztecs allowed 13 made threes but compensated to just 26.1% shooting (6 of 23) on two-pointers. They were miserly all around against the Lobos, who made just 7 of 21 threes and 13 of 40 two-point attempts and hurt their own cause further by making just 15 of 28 free throws.
Can San Diego State keep it up vs. Utah State? They have put up a decent effort in both regular season meetings, allowing 71 points in a five-point loss in Logan on January 31 and 72 in a 17-point home win on February 25.
The Aztecs are 18-4 this season when allowing 75 or fewer points, so those previous performances against the Aggies, as well as their performances against Colorado State and New Mexico, should encourage bettors (but not bubble teams).
The focus on what San Diego State has done is certainly not a slight toward the season Utah State has had or the two comprehensive conference tournament wins the Aggies have had against UNLV and Nevada. But the Aztecs are clicking on the defensive end at just the right time, and I think that will carry them to an eighth and final Mountain West tournament title.
San Diego State vs. Utah State Best Bets
SDSU ML (+105 at Lucky Rebel)
Last night I went for the better odds instead of going the safe route and taking the Aztecs on the moneyline, only for them to win by exactly two points.
It would be absurdly funny at this point if I repeated that choice, only for the Aztecs to lose by a point, but that's a risk worth taking. Utah State is a very good team and the duo of MJ Collins Jr. and Mason Falslev could cause a lot of headaches for a high seed next Saturday or Sunday, but I just like San Diego State's rediscovered defensive acumen to be decisive in this instance.
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