New Mexico vs. San Diego State Prediction & Best Bets: Whose Tournament Hopes Will End Tonight?
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Last Update: Fri Mar 13, 2026, 6:39 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Over the last few years, the Mountain West has made a habit of having significant March Madness representation. This year won't quite stack up, but the winner of tonight's New Mexico vs. San Diego State matchup (11:59 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network) will have a chance to ensure the conference receives multiple bids once again.
Since the Mountain West began play in 1998, there have been only four instances in which the conference did not receive multiple spots in the NCAA tournament: 1999 (when it did not had an automatic bid and received no at-large bids), 2001 (BYU), 2016 (Fresno State), and 2017 (Nevada).
But after receiving at least four bids in each of the past four seasons, the final iteration of the current Mountain West will receive a maximum of two bids. And that will only occur if the New Mexico vs. San Diego State winner can defeat either fifth-seeded Nevada or regular season champion Utah State in tomorrow's championship game (6 p.m. ET, CBS).
The Aztecs (21-10) have made five consecutive NCAA tournament trips, and their hopes for a sixth straight were kept alive with a 71-62 win over Colorado State yesterday. The Rams went in with nine wins in 10 games, but SDSU won comfortably despite missing almost as many (20) free throws as they made (22).
The Lobos (23-9), meanwhile, squashed San Jose State's dreams of a second straight surprise win with a 93-77 victory. Tomislav Buljan's 25 points and 14 rebounds led the way against the Spartans, who were coming off of an upset of Boise State.
In the regular season, UNM and SDSU played two two-possession games. Another close game may be in the cards tonight, according to Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks.
New Mexico vs. San Diego State Prediction and Analysis
How this game plays out will likely depend on which San Diego State shows up on the defensive end.
While they still rank in the top 20 at KenPom in adjusted defensive efficiency, the Aztecs have not consistently performed up to their usual standard on that end.
After allowing 80+ points just six times in the previous six seasons, the Aztecs have allowed 80+ points nine times this season. And it's gone about as well as you might expect, as they are just 3-6 in those games. It is worth noting that two of those were overtime games, but in those overtime games, they allowed 89 points in regulation against Troy and 79 points in regulation against Boise State.
New Mexico put up points in both regular season games vs. San Diego State, scoring 79 in a four-point loss at SDSU on January 17 and 81 in a five-point win at home on February 28.
In the past, even reaching 70 points was a tough ask for a lot of the Aztecs' opponents, but they allowed that number 11 times in conference play 11 times in the regular season and have done so 16 times overall, going 5-6 in conference games and 7-9 overall.
Against a team that has been held to 70 points or fewer only four times in 32 games and fewer than 80 only a dozen times, the Aztecs are going to have to dig deep to keep their NCAA tournament hopes alive.
Ultimately, SDSU shut down a team that had averaged 78.4 points in its last ten games, and the pedigree is more difficult to overlook than this season's missteps. I went back and forth on this one, but I like the Aztecs to send the Lobos packing.
New Mexico vs. San Diego State Prediction and Best Bets
San Diego State -2 (-114 at Lucky Rebel)
After two close contests in the regular season, another tight tilt tonight is a strong possibility. That may make for a sweat, but it also makes the spread an easy take if you are going to back San Diego State.
Sure, there's a chance that this one could end up being a one-point game, but considering the infrequency of that outcome at any level of basketball, I'm happy to play the percentages, save some cents, and go for the spread over the moneyline.
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