These two teams already played in late January, and the total soared over. We saw 156 total points as the Cowboys won by 30, beating UTRGV on the road 93-63. The total for that game was just 144.5, and after going over by 12+ points, we see an adjusted total up just two points.
I will be betting on this matchup to be much slower. McNeese State is one of the slowest offenses in the country. They rank 319th in possessions per game and 327th at home. Their offense isn't all that, but their defense always comes to play. The Cowboys rank 71st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, 61st in eFG% Defense and are 6th in the country at forcing turnovers. Offensively, they crash the glass and don't take too many threes, and I see them focusing on stopping Rio Grande Valley tonight. This is McNeese's last home game of the year, so I see them showing out for their seniors.
The Vaqueros of UTRGV play much faster than McNeese, but away from home, they won't be able to control the pace of the game. Our visitors do not get to the free throw line at all, ranking bottom 6th in FT Rate. Ultimately I do not see them doing their part in contributing to the over, and instead look for the Cowboys' defense to show out at home.
Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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