#20 Louisville vs. #4 Duke Picks and Predictions: ACC Basketball
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Mon Jan 26, 2026, 2:20 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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College Basketball fans are blessed with a top 20 showdown in the ACC tonight at one of the best arenas in the sport. The No. 4 ranked Duke Blue Devils take on the No. 20 Louisville Cardinals in their second matchup of the year. Earlier this month, Duke went on the road to the KFC Yum! Center and beat Louisville by 11 in what was a pick 'em. Now the Blue Devils get to play host and are almost laying double digits against Pat Kelsey's team. Are we in for a blow out? Let's discuss our expert picks and find out.
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Best Bet: Duke Team Total Over 82.5 (-120) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
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#20 Louisville Cardinals vs. #4 Duke Blue Devils NCAA Basketball Insights
Can the Cardinals find a way to get revenge over the Blue Devils on the road?
Louisville has been decent this year but sort of fell off the past month or so. After starting off 7-0, they lost on the road to Arkansas and to Tennessee, failing to cover either single digit spread. Losing Mikel Brown Jr. for several games certainly hurt the team, as they dropped games to Stanford, Duke and Virginia without him. But in his return last game, he scored 20 in 7/11 shooting, picking up right where he left off. Louisville will certainly need him tonight if they want revenge on the Blue Devils.
But Duke really is that good. Despite some slow starts at home, they have yet to lose on their own court. Now, Brown was not active in their last meeting, and again, he will boost the Cardinals' offense, but I'm not sure it will be enough to get by the big, bad Blue Devils. Jon Scheyer's team is playing great recently, covering three straight double digit spreads.
Matchup Information – Louisville vs. Duke – January 26
- Venue & Location: Cameron Indoor Stadium (Durham, NC)
- Date: Monday, January 26, 2025
- Kick Off: 7:00 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: ESPN
Louisville vs. Duke Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of January 26, 2025 at 1:53 p.m. eastern. Sign up today with and get a $1,250 deposit bonus, as well as 50 slot spins immediately. Lucky Rebel Sportsbook offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.
Spread
- Louisville +9 (-108)
- Duke -9 (-112)
Moneyline
- Louisville +350
- Duke -475
Total
- Over 157 (-110)
- Under 157 (-110)
While I do want to get involved on the Duke side of things, I missed out on -6.5, which is under that three possession key number, and the line continues to move in their direction. If you like Duke, either snag them now, perhaps wait to get involved with them live early in the game if Louisville starts off hot, or just bet their team total like me.
#20 Louisville vs. #4 Duke NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions
Cameron Boozer and Duke have put up 83 points in 7/9 games at home this year
Louisville vs. Duke Prediction: Duke Wins and Covers, Over 157
Best Bet: Duke Team Total Over 82.5 (-120) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Duke has played nine games at home this season. They have scored at least 83 points in seven of those games, ending at 82 against SMU. While they are a team that is roughly middle of the pack in terms of possessions per game overall, they significantly speed up at home, almost breaking the top 100. The Cardinals are a team that already likes to run, ranking No. 58 in pace, so there should be plenty of possessions for the Blue Devils to put the ball in the hoop.
The Blue Devils are top 40 at getting to the free throw line, top 35 in offensive rebounds allowed, and top 12 at earning second chance opportunities on the glass in their own gym. They have a huge advantage when it comes to rebounding, and I see them using it. The Cardinals live and die by the three, they shoot significantly worse away from home, and I don't expect too many offensive rebounds on their end, as they jump 20 spots in the wrong direction when on the road. Plus, they rank No. 157 overall in FT Rate defense, but are No. 272 away from home, and are bottom 40 in that category in five true road games this year.
Duke isn't looking ahead to anything, and after a couple slow starts at home, I expect them to come out fired up in front of their faithful students.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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