Big Ten showdown going down in Columbus, as the Buckeyes host the Nittany Lions in the middle of a snowstorm. Ohio State finds themselves as an 11.5-point favorite. The line opened at 13.5 and has since ticked down. The total opened at 154.5 and has since dropped a full point. Both teams are coming off losses in their previous matchup, but who will be more motivated to get back on track? Penn State after losing to Wisconsin 98 to 71 on Thursday, or Ohio State, who lost to Michigan on the road 74 to 62?
I lean heavily with the Buckeyes in this Monday night matchup. They have significant advantages all across Haslametrics data. Most notably, they are the 63rd best team in away home court metrics, while Penn State is 344th. Ohio State is also 157th in consistency, while the Nittany Lions are the fourth worst in that category. There is not one metric that Penn State has any advantage in.
Weak Kitties
Penn State has been abysmal away from home. Through seven games away-neutral site games, the Nittany Lions defense has been nonexistent, ranking 295th in adjusted defensive efficiency, second worst in eFG% defense, and 14th worst in two-point percentage defense. Offensively, they are 313th in offensive rebounding, 327th in free throw rate offense, and 167th in free throw percentage.
Through 11 home games this season, the Buckeyes are 31st in offense and 70th in defense. Overall, they have excelled at limiting offensive rebounds, guarding the perimeter, attacking the glass, and making their free throws. With how well Ohio State is at attacking the glass, they should be able to take full advantage of Penn State's horrific interior defense.
Penn State has also yet to record a win against a top 100 team this season, sitting with a 0-8 record. Five of their last six games have been against top 100 opponents and they simply cannot get over the hump. With a trip to Evanston on Thursday to take on Northwestern looming, this team will either stay on the path of struggle or finally figure it out this evening, but the numbers all point toward the Buckeyes. I have to fade abysmal defenses. Plus, Ohio State is coming off a tough loss against one of the best teams in the country. They should come into this matchup with a massive chip on their shoulder, looking to bounce back.
