Illinois vs Iowa State, Sweet 16, Preview & Best Bets: Polar Opposite Teams Clash
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Wed Mar 27, 2024, 10:03 am ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Two next door neighbors square off in the Sweet 16 as 3 seed Illinois takes on 2 seed Iowa State, with a shot at the Elite Eight on the line. We have a battle of some polarizing styles of play here, as Illinois is very offensive minded, while the Cyclones thrive on defense.
The Illini beat Morehead State and Duquesne in the first weekend, so this will certainly be their toughest battle of the tournament.
The Cyclones handled South Dakota State and they won a tough matchup against Washington State, so they are well equipped for this game.
Let's take a look at our best bets for this matchup!
#3 Illinois vs #2 Iowa State Game Information
Matchup Information – #3 Illinois vs #2 Iowa State
- Venue & Location: TD Garden (Boston, MA)
- Date: Thursday, March 28th, 2024
- Tip Off: 10:09pm Eastern
- Broadcast: TBS/truTV
Betting Odds
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Spread
- Illinois +1.5 (-105)
- Iowa State -1.5 (-115)
Moneyline
- Illinois +105
- Iowa State -125
Total
- Over 146.5 (-110)
- Under 146.5 (-110)
Can the Cyclones Slow Down the Illini?
We have two teams clashing head on with very differing styles of play.
Illinois is ranked 2nd in the nation in offensive efficiency and they play incredibly fast basketball. The Illini are 67th in pace, 31st in eFG%, 14th in Offensive Rebounding and 69th in FT Rate. They run up and down the floor, have multiple bodies that can score at will, and have the rest clean up the rare misses on the offensive glass.
It's been very fun watching them play, and they will absolutely be tough to stop. But if anyone is up for that challenge, it's the Cyclones.
While Illinois has the 2nd ranked offense, Iowa State has the 2nd ranked defense in terms of overall efficiency. The Cyclones are almost north of 200 in pace, 35th in eFG Defense, and 2nd in Turnovers Forced. They give up plenty of threes but do a good job of contesting shooters, forcing opponents to shoot less than 32% from deep, which is Top 50 in the country.
We have a very fast, very offensive team, going up against a much slower, very defensive team.
Who comes out on top?
The Pick: Iowa State ML (-125) Bovada
Ultimately, I am going to back defense in this game.
Obviously we have a fantastic offense against a fantastic defense, but I actually like the Cyclones' offense better than Illinois' defense as well.
The Cyclones rank 46th in offensive efficiency, taking great care of the ball, ranking Top 100 in eFG%, and getting to the free throw line plenty as well. Defensively for the Illini, they don't force any turnovers whatsoever.
It's tough to bet against a team that has won six straight and 9 of their L10, however Iowa State is just as hot. They've won 5 straight and 9 of their L10.
In 2024, the Illini are 18-6 while the Cyclones are 18-5.
This is going to be one hell of a game, and as we all know, Defense Wins Championships.
I sure hope it wins this matchup on Thursday night.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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