Best NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions: Super Tuesday Hoops
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Tue Feb 17, 2026, 11:23 am ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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It's Super Tuesday which means we have tons of action on the CBB betting board. Let's get into some of our expert's favorite picks this evening, touching on some of the most exciting games on the slate.
Go check out what else I've got on my daily card, and view the latest odds at the best online sportsbooks.
Best NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions February 17
#1 Michigan vs. #7 Purdue NCAA Basketball Picks
Dusty May and the Wolverines are once again, the top ranked team in the country
Best Bet: Michigan TT Over 79.5 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
I am all over the Wolverines to score tonight, as I indicated in my full write up of this game. Feel free to check it our here, but I'll give you the spark notes version. The Wolverines will push the pace against a team that struggles to defend, especially against top teams on their home floor. Even though Purdue likes to play slow, they still allowed 81 to Iowa State and 88 to Illinois at Mackey Arena. We are getting the Wolverines' Team Total at a major discount tonight.
They've scored 80 points in all but four of their games this year, and Purdue does not have a defense to stop them. The Wolverines are top 70 at getting to the stripe and have a phenomenal defense, which leads to easy layups in transition. They should have no problem forcing extra possessions and clearing this line, even if Purdue can hang offensively.
South Carolina vs. #12 Florida NCAA Basketball Picks
Thomas Haugh and Florida are playing as good as anyone in the country the past couple of months
Best Bet: Florida TT Over 88.5 (-106) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
We have a system play, and it's an easy system. The Gators are very fast, they are at home, and they face the Gamecocks, so we'll take their team total over. This worked out for us a couple times in the past, and I expect nothing different in Gainesville tonight. For the first time all season, Florida looks like they could go back to back. They are 14-2 since losing two consecutive games to Duke and UConn, and I don't see them easing up against the Gamecocks.
Florida is No. 53 overall in pace but jump into the top 45 when at home, and they are one of the best rebounding teams in the nation, especially on the offensive end. To my eyes, they've figured out their three point shooting and now use it as a weapon to further the gap between them and their opponents. South Carolina is north of 250 in defensive rebounding, and north of 200 in FT Rate defense, 3P Rate defense and opponent eFG%. They have negative defense (clearly) and won't be able to slow down the Gators, who shouldn't be looking ahead to anything.
UCLA vs. #15 Michigan State NCAA Basketball Picks
Tom Izzo and Michigan State have a phenomenal defense, especially at home
Best Bet: UCLA TT Under 65.5 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Another team total, but this time we're betting the under! Michigan State has one of the best defenses at home in all of college hoops, and both teams play tremendously slow. The Spartans are No. 267 overall in pace and rank top 15 in adjusted defensive efficiency and top 25 in opponent eFG%. The Bruins are No. 300 overall in tempo but drop all the way into the bottom 10 in the country on the road.
We shouldn't see very many chances for them to score and doing so against Michigan State is a big enough ask. UCLA is outside the top 215 in eFG% on the road, and don't get to the free throw line all that often either. After scoring 38 in the first half against Michigan, they put up just 18 points in the second. The Spartans have a comparable defense and will certainly use their speed (or lack of) to keep this one low scoring.
#13 Texas Tech vs. Arizona State NCAA Basketball Picks
JT Toppin could be sneaking his way into the National Player of the Year conversation
Best Bet: Texas Tech/Arizona State Over 151.5 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Not a team total, but a full game total as we back both teams to put the ball in the hoop in Tempe tonight. Yes, I know Texas Tech is coming off knocking off No. 1 Arizona on the road, but after that win, battling the Sun Devils should feel like a cake walk. This team shoots plenty of threes and makes over 41% of them on the road, and I don't think Arizona State will have an answer.
However, the Sun Devils will certainly push the pace, giving the Red Raiders more chances to run up the score. I originally liked this at 154.5 last night, and thankfully didn't bet it before seeing it move down three points this morning. Should that scare me? Maybe. But the Sun Devils average over 70 possessions per game, putting them in the top 80 in the country. Plus, their defense is nonexistent, ranking north of 250 in defensive rebounding and FT Rate defense, along with being outside the top 235 in opponent 3P%. Even if Texas Tech is a little sluggish after their overtime win, they should have plenty of chances to contribute to this total.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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