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Alabama vs Purdue Prediction & Picks: Tide, Boilermakers Tangle in Top-Tier Toronto Tilt
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Tomorrow, Zach Edey will be looking to have a happy homecoming as he and Purdue face off with Alabama in the Hall of Fame Series at Coca-Coliseum in Toronto (1:30 pm ET, FOX).
After winning the Wooden Award last season, the Toronto native is off to a fine start this season. So are the Boilermakers, who suffered their first loss last week at Northwestern but rebounded with a 19-point home win over Iowa on Monday.
Bet on Alabama vs Purdue and Other College Basketball Games at Bovada
The loss to Northwestern dropped Purdue from the top spot in the rankings, which they ascended to after winning the Maui Invitational with wins over Gonzaga, Tennessee, and Marquette.
But tomorrow’s matchup with the Crimson Tide is another opportunity for Edey and the Boilermakers to flex their muscles and show that they are one of the best teams in college basketball, if not the best, regardless of the number beside their name.
As for Alabama, this game is a big opportunity for them as well. After starting 4-0, the Tide have dropped two of their last four games and fallen out of the rankings.
A win over Purdue would boost Bama back into the rankings, and it would be the perfect way to kick off a three-game gauntlet that will see them also visit #10 Creighton next Saturday (8:00 pm ET, FOX) and face #1 Arizona in Phoenix in a dozen days (11:00 pm ET, ESPN).
Alabama vs Purdue Odds
Odds are courtesy of Bovada.
Spread
- Alabama +6 (-110)
- Purdue -6 (-110)
Over/Under
- Over 161.5 (-110)
- Under 161.5 (-110)
Battle on the Boards Likely to Doom Alabama?
In four-plus seasons at Alabama, Nate Oats has led the Crimson Tide to two SEC regular season and tournament title sweeps, two Sweet 16 appearances, and 98 wins.
In that time, the Crimson Tide have outrun and blown many a team away. When things have been good, they have often been great. At their best, there have been few teams better.
But the opposite end of that is they can be one of the most frustrating teams in the country.
Which team will show up against Purdue? It’s anyone’s guess, but a couple of personnel issues could prove to be a major problem.
Entering today, Purdue is 11th in the country in rebound margin, which you might expect to be the case when they have Edey racking up double-doubles for fun.
But their second leading rebounder is guard Braden Smith, who is not quite Edey when it comes to physical prowess but has pulled down five or more boards seven times this season.
Top Players for Purdue
- Zach Edey: 23.7 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 2.9 BPG
- Braden Smith: 11.7 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 7.1 APG, 1.7 SPG
- Lance Jones: 11.0 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 2.1 APG, 1.6 SPG
Can Alabama keep Edey from bagging board after board and prevent Smith from getting his share as well? That is a major concern.
Grant Nelson, who is the team’s leading rebounder, is uncertain for tomorrow’s game due to a leg injury suffered against Arkansas State in Monday’s 89-65 win over the Red Wolves.
However, Nick Pringle, who has averaged 4.4 rebounds in seven games this season, is set to return to action against Purdue.
Top Players for Alabama
- Mark Sears: 19.8 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 4.3 APG2.0
- Aaron Estrada: 16.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 2.9 APG
- Grant Nelson: 14.0 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.6 BPG
Pringle was indefinitely suspended prior to the Arkansas State game, but whatever resulted in that suspension was clearly ironed out very quickly, given that the six-foot-ten senior is making a quick return to action.
Pringle, who averages more offensive rebounds (2.3) than defensive rebounds (2.1), will need to be busy on the boards on both ends. If the Boilermakers have their way, it will be a likely a very, very long afternoon, as I don’t see things turning out favorably for the Tide if they are outrebounded by a healthy margin.
Alabama vs Purdue Prediction and Picks
Prediction: Purdue to win
Picks: Alabama/Purdue over 161.5 (-110 at Bovada), Mark Sears over 15.5 points (-125 at Bovada) & Zach Edey over 12.5 rebounds (-125 at Bovada)
It wouldn’t be at all surprising if the Crimson Tide were to spoil Edey’s homecoming. With how well things can go when they are firing on all cylinders, they can’t be written off at all.
With that in mind, I’m staying away from the spread, though my lean would be for Purdue to both win and cover.
Instead, I’m rolling with a couple of props I really like, as well as the over, taking into consideration the fact that Alabama has given up 92, 91, and 85 points in their toughest games this season.
The total for Sears’ scoring prop feels rather low, considering what he has done this season. He has scored 16+ points six times this season, and every time he has scored fewer than 20 points, he has hit the 20-point mark in the following game. After scoring only 13 points against Arkansas State, look for Sears to have a productive game against the Boilermakers.
Last but certainly not least, look for Edey to make the most of a favorable matchup and record 13+ rebounds for the fourth time this season. He has posted big numbers in each of Purdue’s toughest games to this point, so I fully expect him to be up to the task against Alabama.
- Xavier: 28 points, 11 rebounds, four blocks
- Gonzaga: 25 points, 14 rebounds, three blocks
- Tennessee: 23 points, 10 rebounds
- Marquette: 28 points, 15 rebounds
- Northwestern: 35 points, 14 rebounds, three blocks
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