Kansas Lottery 300 Predictions & Picks: Xfinity Series Regular Season Finale Promises Drama
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Published: Fri Sep 08, 2023, 8:03 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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The end of the NASCAR Xfinity Series regular season is here, and on Saturday afternoon, the regular season championship and playoff field will be decided in the Kansas Lottery 300 at Kansas Speedway (3:00 pm ET, NBC).
Entering the 26th and final regular season race, Austin Hill is poised to claim the regular season title and get a crucial leg up on his 11 championship rivals to begin the playoffs, which will start with next week's Food City 300 at Bristol Motor Speedway.
Hill lost out on the win to Denny Hamlin late in last week's Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help a Hero 200 at Darlington, but he will enter the Kansas Lottery 300 23 points ahead of John Hunter Nemechek and 33 ahead of Justin Allgaier.
That trio is 100% certain to be in the playoffs, and so are eight other drivers.
NASCAR Xfinity Series Points Standings (Through 25 Races)
Drivers in bold have won at least one race this season.
- 1. Austin Hill – 968 points
- 2. John Hunter Nemechek – 945
- 3. Justin Allgaier – 935
- 4. Cole Custer – 861
- 5. Sam Mayer – 781
- 6. Josh Berry – 765
- 7. Sheldon Creed – 712
- 8. Daniel Hemric – 711
- 9. Chandler Smith – 706
- 10. Riley Herbst – 657
- 11. Parker Kligerman – 656
- 12. Sammy Smith – 629
- 13. Jeb Burton – 592
- 14. Brandon Jones – 578
- 15. Brett Moffitt – 539
- 16. Parker Retzlaff – 483
The final spot in the Round of 12 will be taken by either Riley Herbst, Parker Kligerman, or potentially the winner of the Kansas Lottery 300, if it is a previously winless driver who isn't already in the playoff on points. Could be that Jones, a two-time winner of this race?
Odds to Win the 2023 Kansas Lottery 300
Odds are via Bovada.
- John Hunter Nemechek +250
- Justin Allgaier +350
- Austin Hill +450
- Cole Custer +600
- Josh Bery +600
- Sam Mayer +900
- Sammy Smith +1200
- Brandon Jones +2000
- Chandler Smith +2000
- Riley Herbst +3500
- Sheldon Creed +3500
- Joe Graf Jr. +4000
- Daniel Hemric +5000
- Parker Kligerman +8000
- Brett Moffitt +10000
- Derek Kraus +10000
- Ryan Sieg +10000
- Jeb Burton +30000
- Parker Retzlaff +30000
- Kaz Grala +40000
Kansas Lottery 300 Predictions and Picks
Hill missed out on tying Nemechek for the series lead in wins, but his runner-up finish at Darlington had to be a welcome result after late accidents at Watkins Glen (Shriners Children's 200 at the Glen) and Daytona (Wawa 250) knocked him out of contention for the win in both races.
Hill now has 14 top-five finishes and 18 top-ten finishes this season, and he is -130 to land in the top five in the Kansas Lottery 300.
He can lock up the regular season championship without a top five, but as regularly as he has been near the front this season, -130 feels like a steal.
Entering last week's race at Darlington, Kligerman held the edge over Herbst for a playoff spot after finishing third and fourth at Watkins Glen and Daytona, respectively. But while Herbst finished sixth at Darlington, Kligerman was only 24th.
That puts him in a tough spot for this week, but it was just his second finish outside of the top ten in his last 10 races.
Last Ten Races for Parker Kligerman
- Darlington: 24th
- Daytona: 4th
- Watkins Glen: 3rd
- Indianapolis: 7th
- Michigan: 8th
- Road America: 2nd
- Pocono: 9th
- New Hampshire: 32nd
- Atlanta: 8th
- Chicago: 9th
Notably, Kansas Lottery 300 odds have placed Kligerman at +1000 to finish in the top five. Given his results over the last couple of months, that is well worth a little sprinkle.
The other finishing position pick for this week might be a longer shot than Kligerman, even though the odds are much, much shorter.
This season, Brandon Jones has finished in the top five only twice. He finished fifth in the April race at Martinsville, and he finished third in the Cabo Wabo 250 at Michigan last month.
But Jones is a two-time winner of the Kansas Lottery 300, and he is one of the drivers needing to make a big push for the win. That and odds of +300 makes him an appealing option for a top-five finish.
Both Kligerman and Jones would love to end up in Victory Lane, but neither is my winner pick for the week.
Thus far in the Xfinity Series season, six races have been won by Cup Series regulars. Of the other 19 races, 15 have been won by a quintet of drivers: Nemechek (five), Hill (four), Allgaier, Custer, and Mayer (two each).
Based on how things have shaken out to this point, it is likely that one of those drivers takes the Kansas Lottery 300 win.
Also, this race has been dominated by Joe Gibbs Racing in recent years, with a JGR driver winning 11 of the last 16 editions.
Recent Kansas Lottery 300 Winners
- 2022: Noah Gragson
- 2021: Ty Gibbs
- 2020 (2nd race – October): Chase Briscoe
- 2020 (1st race – July): Brandon Jones
- 2019: Brandon Jones
- 2018: John Hunter Nemechek
- 2017: Christopher Bell
- 2016: Kyle Busch
- 2015: Kyle Busch
- 2014: Kyle Busch
- 2013: Matt Kenseth
- 2012: Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
- 2011: Brad Keselowski
- 2010: Joey Logano
- 2009: Joey Logano
- 2008: Denny Hamlin
One of the non-JGR wins came in 2018, when Nemechek won while with Chip Ganassi Racing. In addition to that Xfinity Series win, Nemechek also won the Truck Series Kansas Lottery 200 last year.
Nemechek won the first two stages last week before finishing third behind Hamlin and Hill, and he will be out to rack up as many points as he can to try to edge Hill for the regular season championship.
He may fall short of that goal, but I'm backing him to pick up his sixth win of the season and continue JGR's dominance in this race. What better way to cap off the week his return to the Cup Series was announced than with a trip to Victory Lane?
Where to Bet on the Kansas Lottery 300
Many of the top sports betting sites offer a variety of NASCAR betting odds. Throughout the season, you can bet on races like the Daytona 500, Coca-Cola 600, and others.
Along with being able to bet on the winner of each Cup Series, Xfinity Series, and/or Truck Series race, sportsbooks like Bovada and BetUS offer finishing position odds (top 3, top 5, and/or top 10).
Also, odds on who will finish at the top of the championship standings are available at many reputable sportsbooks.
In addition to Bovada, where the Kansas Lottery 200 odds in this article are from, here are some of the sites that we recommend if you are interested in NASCAR betting:
If you don't have an account at a book on this list, check out our reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds.
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