NASCAR Xfinity Series Contender Boats 300 Predictions & Picks: Will Custer’s Recent Run Continue With a Win at Homestead?
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Published: Fri Oct 20, 2023, 5:05 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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After a non-playoff driver won last week's NASCAR Xfinity Series race in Las Vegas, all four spots in the Championship 4 are still up for grabs entering Saturday's Contender Boats 300 at Homestead-Miami Speedway (3:00 pm ET, USA).
At last week's Alsco Uniforms 302 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Riley Herbst, who just missed out on the playoffs, claimed his first win in 139 career Xfinity Series starts.
As a result, no one has clinched a spot in the Championship 4. But with drivers who make up the Round of 8 accounting for 70% of this season's wins (21 wins in 30 races), that is likely to change tomorrow.
And if even if a non-playoff driver wins yet again, season wins leader John Hunter Nemechek is poised to potentially do lock down his spot even if he doesn't win tomorrow.
NASCAR Xfinity Series Points Standings (Entering the Contender Boats 300)
- John Hunter Nemechek – 3103
- Justin Allgaier – 3077
- Austin Hill – 3075
- Cole Custer – 3071
- Chandler Smith – 3056
- Sam Mayer – 3055
- Sammy Smith – 3036
- Sheldon Creed – 3030
With where Creed and Sammy Smith are relative, they are the drivers most in need of a win at Homestead, or a high, high finish at the very least.
Nemechek, meanwhile, is the favorite to win the Contender Boats 300, with Custer, Josh Berry, Allgaier, and Hill rounding out the top five favorites.
Odds to Win the 2023 Contender Boats 300
Odds are via Bovada.
- John Hunter Nemechek +200
- Cole Custer +350
- Josh Berry +900
- Justin Allgaier +900
- Austin Hill +1000
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. +1100
- Chandler Smith +1200
- Sheldon Creed +1200
- Riley Herbst +1600
- Sam Mayer +1600
- Sammy Smith +1800
- Brandon Jones +2000
- Daniel Hemric +2800
- Parker Kligerman +5000
- Derek Kraus +8000
- Joe Graf Jr. +8000
- Parker Retzlaff +12500
- Brett Moffitt +20000
Contender Boats 300 Predictions and Picks
While Herbst scored a long-awaited win at Las Vegas, playoff drivers have dominated proceedings across NASCAR's three national series during the playoffs.
In the Cup Series, the only win in the first seven playoff races has been by A.J. Allmendinger, who won the Bank of America Roval 400 earlier this month. The drivers who are in the Round of 8 in the Cup Series playoffs have accounted for 24 of 33 wins (72.7%) in the series this season, led by William Byron's six.
In the Truck Series, the only win by a non-playoff driver in the first five playoff races has been by Brett Moffitt, who won the Love's RV Stop 250 at Talladega last time out. The drivers in the Round of 8 in the Truck Series playoffs have accounted for 16 of 21 (76.2%) race wins thus far this season.
In the Xfinity Series, Herbst's Alsco Uniforms 302 win was the first by a non-playoff driver in the first four playoff races, and as mentioned above, Round of 8 drivers have accounted for 21 of 30 wins this season.
Generally speaking, non-playoff drivers haven't found Victory Lane too often in the history of the Xfinity Series playoffs, save for 2017, which was the first year of the current playoff format, as well as 2021.
Wins by Non-Playoff Drivers in the History of the Xfinity Series Playoffs
- 2023: 1
- 2022: 0
- 2021: 4
- 2020: 1
- 2019: 1
- 2018: 2
- 2017: 5
So, if you are making any Contender Boats 300 race winner picks, a playoff driver is your best option.
But before we get to this week's winner pick(s), there are a few finishing position picks that stand out.
Sam Mayer reached the Round of 8 by coming through in a must-win situation in the Drive for the Cure 250 at Charlotte, and he opened the Round of 8 by finishing fifth last week.
Mayer's three wins this season have all been on road courses, but he has produced a number of good results on ovals. He needs a strong showing in the Contender Boats 300 to boost his Championship 4 chances, and there's high value and low risk in backing him for a top five tomorrow (+250 at Bovada).
Austin Hill had a decent showing in Vegas, where he finished seventh, but he has now finished outside of the top five in four consecutive races, which ties a season high. I'm keeping the faith with the regular season champion and backing him to return to the top five (+150 at Bovada).
Recent Contender Boats 300 Race Winners
- 2022: Noah Gragson
- 2021: Myatt Snider
- 2020 (#2): Chase Briscoe
- 2020 (#1): Harrison Burton
- 2019: Tyler Reddick
- 2018: Tyler Reddick
- 2017: Cole Custer
- 2016: Daniel Suarez
- 2015: Kyle Larson
- 2014: Matt Kenseth
Thus far in the playoffs, Custer doesn't have a win. However, he has been the most consistent driver in the field, finishing fourth, sixth, second, and third.
Custer won this race six years ago when it was known as the Ford EcoBoost 300 and finished second at Homestead in 2018 and 2019.
With how well he has run in the playoffs and his previous success at the track, he is a very worthy choice as my Contender Boats 300 race winner pick.
Where to Bet on NASCAR
Many of the top sports betting sites offer a variety of NASCAR betting odds. Throughout the season, you can bet on races like the Daytona 500, Coca-Cola 600, and others.
Along with being able to bet on the winner of each Cup Series, Xfinity Series, and/or Truck Series race, sportsbooks like Bovada offer finishing position odds (top 3, top 5, and/or top 10).
Also, odds on who will finish at the top of the championship standings are available at many reputable sportsbooks.
In addition to Bovada, here are some of the sites that we recommend if you are interested in NASCAR betting:
If you don't have an account at a book on this list, check out our reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds.
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