2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship Race Predictions & Picks: Will This Finally Be Allgaier’s Year?
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Published: Sat Nov 04, 2023, 2:15 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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After a Truck Series finale that was nothing short of unhinged, NASCAR championship weekend at Phoenix Raceway continues today with the Xfinity Series Championship Race (7:00 pm ET, USA).
Will today's race play out similarly to the late-night spin-o-rama that took place in last night's Craftsman 150? The chaos, which featured four overtime restarts and went 29 laps over the scheduled 150, ended with Ben Rhodes holding off Grant Enfinger on the final lap to win his second title.
Rhodes and Enfinger were the "other" drivers in a battle that many would have expected to come down to Carson Hocevar and Corey Heim.
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Alas, Hocevar had other ideas, and a spin of Heim, who was on course to cap a fantastic season with a title, helped set stage for another memorable victory celebration for Rhodes.
Of course, there was plenty of drama in the Xfinity Series last weekend, so a less dramatic finale might be more ideal.
Last week's last-lap drama in the Dead On Tools 250 at Martinsville saw Justin Allgaier win his way in and Cole Custer join him in the Championship 4, with Richard Childress Racing missing out on a championship chance altogether when teamwork could have landed both Austin Hill and Sheldon Creed the spots that went to Allgaier and Custer.
Allgaier and Custer are joined in the Xfinity Series Championship 4 by John Hunter Nemechek, who has a series-leading seven wins this season, and Sam Mayer, who has won twice in the playoffs and four times this season.
Which one of that quartet will emerge with the title this evening? There are both race winner and championship odds available, both of which are topped Nemechek, Allgaier, Custer, and Mayer.
NASCAR Xfinity Series Odds for Championship Weekend
Odds are courtesy of Bovada.
Odds to Win the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship
- John Hunter Nemechek -125
- Justin Allgaier +350
- Cole Custer +400
- Sam Mayer +600
Odds to Win the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship Race
- John Hunter Nemechek +150
- Justin Allgaier +350
- Cole Custer +450
- Sam Mayer +800
- Sammy Smith +800
- Riley Herbst +1000
- Austin Hill +1600
- Chandler Smith +1600
- Josh Berry +1600
- Sheldon Creed +2500
- Daniel Hemric +3500
- Brandon Jones +4000
- Rajah Carruth +6600
- Derek Kraus +10000
- Myatt Snider +10000
- Parker Kligerman +12500
NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship Race Predictions & Picks
Do previous results at Phoenix provide an indication as to who you should bet on to take the win and/or title today?
In the March race there, Sammy Smith booked his spot in the playoffs by claiming his first Xfinity Series win in his 13th start in the series.
Here is how each driver in the Championship 4 finished in that race:
- John Hunter Nemechek: 6th
- Sam Mayer: 11th
- Cole Custer: 12th
- Justin Allgaier: 36th
So, that doesn't really tell us too much, does it?
What I can say is that I think that we will have a repeat of last night, as Ben Rhodes won the title but Christian Eckes, who agonizingly missed out on the Championship 4, won the race.
That is a bit of a bold call, given that it goes against some stiff history. Since the playoffs were introduced in the Xfinity Series in 2016, the driver who won the championship did so by winning the season finale in every year but one.
In 2017, Cole Custer, who was eliminated in the Round of 8 as an Xfinity Series rookie that year, won the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway. However, fellow series rookie William Byron, who finished third behind Custer and Sam Hornish Jr., won the title by five points ahead of Elliott Sadler.
Recent NASCAR Xfinity Series Champions (2016-Present)
- 2022: Ty Gibbs (won finale)
- 2021: Daniel Hemric (won finale)
- 2020: Austin Cindric (won finale)
- 2019: Tyler Reddick (won finale)
- 2018: Tyler Reddick (won finale)
- 2017: William Byron (did not win finale)
- 2016: Daniel Suarez (won finale)
So, how do I see things shaking out this year? In the Truck Series, Eckes was pretty unlucky to miss out on the Championship 4 after things could not have gone much better for him in the first four playoff races and the first 199 laps of the fifth race. However, he got out there last night and ended his season on a positive, but very bittersweet note.
Will Hill be in that position today? I like his chances to, provided his mission today isn't to exact revenge on soon-to-be-former teammate Creed.
As for the title winner? My head says Nemechek. Prior to finishing 18th at Martinsville, he had finished third or better six times in six races, and his seven wins account for part of his 15 top-three finishes this season.
My heart though? Allgaier is the pick. Since returning to the Xfinity Series after two seasons in the Cup Series in 2014 and 2015, Allgaier has now made the Championship 4 six times in eight seasons, including 2020, when he led the most laps at Phoenix but finished fifth.
After years of coming close without winning a title, Allgaier is due for his crowning moment, and I'm rolling with my heart over my head here.
Where to Bet on NASCAR
Many of the top sports betting sites offer a variety of NASCAR betting odds. Throughout the season, you can bet on races like the Daytona 500, Coca-Cola 600, and others, like tonight's Craftsman 150 at Phoenix.
Along with being able to bet on the winner of each Cup Series, Xfinity Series, and/or Truck Series race, sportsbooks like Bovada offer finishing position odds (top 3, top 5, and/or top 10).
Also, odds on who will finish at the top of the championship standings are available at many reputable sportsbooks.
In addition to Bovada, here are some of the sites that we recommend if you are interested in NASCAR betting:
There are a number of reputable online sportsbooks that are good for betting on tennis, but we have reviewed all of the above books and highly recommend them all.
If you don't have an account at any of the sites mentioned, check out our reviews to learn more about what they have to offer.
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