UFC Vegas 78 Fremd vs Pickett Fight Picks & Odds: Don’t Expect a Long Fight

Devon Platana

Written by: Devon Platana

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UFC Vegas 78 is just over 24 hours away from taking over the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main card won’t see any shortage of high-quality MMA action, including the showdown between Josh Fremd and ex-NLFC Middleweight Champion Jamie Pickett.

Fremd and Pickett will use this fight to prove themselves. Neither man has had much luck lately, but a decisive victory could propel them one step closer to being ranked. It all depends on how the men handle Saturday night’s spotlight.

Betting News has all of your Fremd vs. Pickett betting needs covered, ranging from the latest odds ahead of this weekend to the best picks to make.

Fremd vs Pickett Tale of the Tape

Josh Fremd — Jamie Pickett

  • Record: 10-4 — 13-9
  • Height: 6’4” — 6’2”
  • Reach: 76” — 80”
  • Weight: 185 lbs — 185 lbs
  • Age: 29 — 34
  • Fighting Stance: Orthodox — Orthodox
  • Knockouts: 4 — 8

Fremd vs Pickett Odds (as of Friday, August 11 at 9:00 a.m. via BetOnline)


  • Josh Fremd -350
  • Jamie Pickett +285

Will the Fight Go the Distance?

  • Yes +170
  • No -210

Round Total

  • Over 1.5 Rounds (-185)
  • Under 1.5 Rounds (+155)

Fremd vs Pickett Fight Preview & Stats

It’s no secret who the clear-cut favorite in this fight is ahead of UFC Vegas 78. BetOnline is siding with Fremd as the -350 moneyline favorite this week, which translates to an implied win probability of 77.8%.

Fremd is a gifted fighter who knows how to finish the job, having finished eight opponents in his first 14 fights. He’s versatile with how he ends his foes as four victories came by KO/TKO while the other four were by submission.

Fremd’s UFC tenure didn’t start well, beginning with back-to-back losses to Anthony Hernandez (unanimous decision) and Tresean Gore (technical submission). Nevertheless, he most recently rebounded from those losses at UFC Fight Night 221, submitting Sedriques Dumas in the second round.

Meanwhile, this bout will also reveal how much Pickett has left in the tank.

The 34-year-old veteran impressed on Dana White’s Contender Series 2020 but hasn’t been able to find consistent success in the UFC. He’s an abysmal 2-5 in his last seven fights and hasn’t won since the beginning of 2022.

Fast forward to this weekend and Pickett heads into this weekend’s action riding a three-fight losing streak. What’s even worse is that he was finished in each of those outings, losing twice by submission and once via knockout.

Although these middleweights average similar offensive striking numbers, Pickett absorbs more significant blows per minute (4.23) than Fremd (2.71). On top of that, Fremd is more accurate with his takedowns (75% vs. 36%) and averages significantly more submissions per 15 minutes (1.6 vs. 0.2).

At the end of the day, it looks like Pickett has an uphill battle ahead and time will tell if he’s built to handle it.

UFC Vegas 78: Fremd vs Pickett Betting Trends and Markets

With the moneyline heavily in Fremd’s favor, bettors will be looking for other markets to provide some value. Fortunately, BetOnline has a great variety to keep you satisfied this weekend.

For starters, MMA enthusiasts shouldn’t expect a lengthy fight. The sportsbook is favoring that this bout won’t go the distance at -210 odds. It isn’t surprising given that 10 of Fremd’s career fights featured a finish while 15 of Pickett’s 22 ended with finishes.

Can Jamie Pickett avoid another finish by taking Josh Fremd to the distance at the Apex?

Keeping that in mind, Fremd’s likeliest method of victory is submission (+220). His last two victories came via submission, after all. On top of that, Pickett has been submitted four times throughout his 12-year career.

Speaking of Pickett, his top victory method is points (+450). While he’s won by points twice in the last 20 months, it’s hard imagining it happening this weekend considering how he’s been finished in his last three outings.

If you’re trying to pinpoint when and how this fight ends, BetOnline has Fremd winning in Round 1 either by submission or KO/TKO at +500 odds. Although he’s knocked out three opponents in the opening frame, he’s yet to pick up a first-round submission victory.

UFC Vegas 78: Fremd vs Pickett Picks & Prediction

I’m siding with oddsmakers by taking Fremd to win this weekend. His UFC run started off shaky, but he’s back on track following his win over Dumas. Pickett, on the other hand, looks terrible and can’t be trusted due to how easily he’s been finished over the last 18 months.

I’m also taking Fremd to win via submission (+220) as the best bet. Pickett just isn’t that great of a grappler, highlighted by his being taken down four times while being submitted twice in his last three fights. As long as Fremd gets off to a hot start, he won’t have an issue snapping or tapping Pickett out in Las Vegas.

UFC Vegas 78 FAQ

When is UFC Vegas 78?

UFC Vegas 78 will take place on Saturday, August 12, 2023.

Where is UFC Vegas 78?

UFC Vegas 78 will take place at the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.

What time does UFC Vegas 78 start?

  • UFC Vegas 78’s Preliminary Card Start Time: 4 p.m. ET
  • Start Time of UFC Vegas 78’s Main Card: 7 p.m. ET

How can I watch UFC Vegas 78?

UFC Vegas 78’s main and preliminary cards can be viewed on ESPN and ESPN+.

How can I bet on UFC Vegas 78?

All of the top online sports betting sites will have UFC Vegas 78’s odds, but here are some of the sites we recommend most for MMA betting enthusiasts.

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Devon Platana
Devon Platana

Devon is a Master of Journalism graduate who joined the sports betting world in 2020. His favorite leagues to cover are the NHL, NBA and NFL, and has a soft spot for fantasy football specifically. Outside of sports, he enjoys the finer things in life like pasta, live music and getting even more tattoos.

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