UFC Vegas 78 Luque vs Dos Anjos Fight Picks & Odds: Luque Showcases Finishing Ability

Devon Platana

Written by: Devon Platana

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UFC Vegas 78 Luque vs Dos Anjos Fight Picks & Odds: Luque Showcases Finishing Ability cover


UFC Vegas 78 is just days away as a night of exciting MMA action is set to take place at the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. All eyes are on the massive welterweight main event as Vicente Luque makes his return to the octagon to take on former UFC Lightweight Champion Rafael dos Anjos.

Luque heads into this weekend’s festivities as the UFC’s No. 10-ranked welterweight. Meanwhile, dos Anjos is fighting as a welterweight for the second straight outing after being No. 9 in the lightweight division.

It’s going to be a competitive headlining act that combat sports fans won’t want to miss.

Betting News has all of your Luque vs. dos Anjos betting needs covered, ranging from the latest odds ahead of UFC Vegas 78 to the best picks to make.

Luque vs Dos Anjos Tale of the Tape

Vicente Luque — Rafael dos Anjos

  • Record: 21-9-1 — 32-14
  • Height: 5’11” — 5’8”
  • Reach: 76” — 70”
  • Weight: 170 lbs — 170 lbss
  • Age: 31 — 38
  • Fighting Stance: Orthodox — Southpaw
  • Knockouts: 11 — 5

Luque vs Dos Anjos Odds (as of Wednesday, August 9 at 9:15 a.m. via BetOnline)


  • Vicente Luque -106
  • Rafael dos Anjos -114

Will the Fight Go the Distance?

  • Yes +135
  • No -165

Round Total

  • Over 4.5 Rounds (+115)
  • Under 4.5 Rounds (-145)

Luque vs Dos Anjos Fight Preview

The latest Luque vs. dos Anjos betting odds point to an evenly-matched main event this weekend. Having said that, dos Anjos is BetOnline’s slim favorite at -114 odds, giving him an implied win probability of 53.3% at UFC Vegas 78.

Dos Anjos’ career has been a mixed bag since losing the lightweight championship in 2016. He initially found success as a welterweight shortly after the title loss, picking up three consecutive victories in his new weight class.

Unfortunately, the good times didn’t last long. Dos Anjos went on a 1-4 run in the welterweight division, leading to his lightweight return. He then won two of the subsequent three fights before returning to the welterweight class at UFC on ESPN 42, where he submitted Bryan Barberena with a neck crank.

Does Rafael dos Anjos have what it takes to start a winning streak in the welterweight division?

On the other side, the main event marks Luque’s return to the cage following a one-year hiatus.

The Westwood, New Jersey native took the MMA world by storm after making his UFC debut, winning 14 of his first 17 fights with ease. He showed a tremendous finishing ability during that run, knocking out eight opponents while submitting another three.

Much to his dismay, Luque hasn’t come close to reaching those heights lately. He’s coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in his career, losing to Belal Muhammad (via unanimous decision) and Geoff Neal (via KO) in his latest two fights.

One thing that Luque does have going for him is the size advantage. He stands three inches taller than dos Anjos while boasting a whopping six-inch reach edge.

Luque also lands more significant strikes per minute (5.49 vs. 3.56) with better accuracy (52% vs. 47%), however, dos Anjos averages four times per takedowns per 15 mins (2.05 vs. 0.51).

UFC Vegas 78: Luque vs dos Anjos Betting Trends and Markets

With the Luque vs. dos Anjos odds being neck-and-neck ahead of UFC Vegas 78, there’s no shame in betting on the moneyline. At the same time, the moneyline doesn’t exactly reveal how a fight will go down.

Fortunately, BetOnline has a variety of markets that shed even more light on the upcoming main event bout.

Although the two welterweights are scheduled for a five-round fight, oddsmakers don’t see this one going the distance. BetOnline favors that we’ll see some a finish at -165 odds, further highlighted by the under favored on the 4.5-round total (-145).

That’s why it’s strange that the likeliest method of victory is dos Anjos winning by points at +190 odds. Nevertheless, 16 of his 32 career wins came by some form of decision, however, he’s just 2-4 in his last six fights that went the distance.

On the flip side, Luque’s top victory method is a KO/TKO win (+200) at UFC Vegas 78. It isn’t surprising given that eight of his 11 knockout victories came in the UFC. Still, he hasn’t knocked out an opponent in over three years.

The biggest wins can be found in the method + round combo market, where Luque is favored to win via first-round knockout (+600). Interestingly enough, 72.7% of his career KO/TKO victories occurred in the opening round.

UFC Vegas 78: Luque vs dos Anjos Fight Picks & Prediction

In a fight that could easily go either way, I’m taking Luque to be victorious in his return. Dos Anjos has lost four of his last six welterweight fights and is now facing one of the division’s top fighters. Luque has the size and striking advantages to give him the edge while being backed by the motivation of needing to prove that he still has ‘It.’

As for the best Luque vs. dos Anjos bet, let’s go with Luque winning by KO/TKO (+200). He prefers finishing his opponents and will do his best to end this one as early as possible. It also helps that dos Anjos has been knocked out four times, most recently by Rafael Fiziev just 13 months ago.

Luque’s reach advantage will allow him to land blows from a distance before eventually finishing dos Anjos off in Sin City.

UFC Vegas 78 Event Details

When is UFC Vegas 78?

UFC Vegas 78 will take place on Saturday, August 12, 2023.

Where is UFC Vegas 78?

UFC Vegas 78 will take place at the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.

What time does UFC Vegas 78 start?

  • UFC Vegas 78’s Preliminary Card Start Time: 4 p.m. ET
  • Start Time of UFC Vegas 78’s Main Card: 7 p.m. ET

How can I watch UFC Vegas 78?

UFC Vegas 78’s main and preliminary cards can be viewed on ESPN and ESPN+.

How can I bet on UFC Vegas 78?

All of the top online sports betting sites will have UFC Vegas 78 odds, but here are some of the sites we recommend most for MMA betting enthusiasts.

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Devon Platana
Devon Platana

Devon is a Master of Journalism graduate who joined the sports betting world in 2020. His favorite leagues to cover are the NHL, NBA and NFL, and has a soft spot for fantasy football specifically. Outside of sports, he enjoys the finer things in life like pasta, live music and getting even more tattoos.

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