Fight fans, this is a really, really good card. Fight gamblers, this card presents some very intriguing odds because the favorites are not terribly heavy favorites but should leave with a win regardless. Without further ado, the best bets:
Ronaldo Souza (26-6, -185) vs. Jack Hermansson (19-4, +160)
Hermansson’s stock has been rising ridiculously over the past year or so, and he finds himself main-eventing this one against the time-is-running-out Jacare. Souza is not quite as explosive as he once was and his gas tank has been betraying him more and more frequently, but his battles against Kelvin Gastelum and Chris Weidman showed that he is still a top contender in the division. This feels like it is a bit too much a bit too early for Hermansson as Jacare, despite his age, still remains one of the smarter fighters on the UFC roster. Look for Jacare’s jiu-jitsu skills to overwhelm Hermansson and grind out a five-round decision.
Glover Teixeira (28-7, +145) vs. Ion Cutelaba (14-3, -165)
Gone are the days of Teixeira being near the top of the division, and with that regression has gone his chin as well. Teixeira’s only chance at this one is to drag Cutelaba to the ground and either submit him or keep him there for 15 minutes. Two years ago, that is what Glover did and did it well. Nowadays, Cutelaba will catch Teixeira coming in and floor him. The pick is Cutelaba via first-round knockout.
John Lineker (31-8, -150) vs. Cory Sandhagen (10-1, +130)
Like most of Lineker’s and Sandhagen’s fights, this should be an exciting matchup to watch. Lineker probably has the most power out of anyone in this weight class, which does not bode well for the defensively challenged Sandhagen. Sandhagen will need to be much more tactically polished in this one than he has shown capable of being over the course of his career. Sandhagen will soon find out that letting Lineker dictate the terms of the fight will get him hit in the face quite a bit. Lineker wins this one by third-round stoppage as Sandhagen will leave the octagon a bloody mess. This is a no-doubter at just -150.
Gilbert Burns (14-3, -285) vs. Mike Davis (6-1, +225)
On about a week’s notice, Davis steps in against Burns, who has apparently earned a dangerous enough reputation to have trouble finding some competition. Burns is best-known for his Brazilian jiu-jitsu accolades, but he has also developed a solid striking game based around single, powerful blows. Davis has the ability to knock out Burns, but at any sign of trouble, Burns should get Davis to the ground, a position that Davis will not be able to get out of. Burns by a comfortable decision is the pick, but do not be surprised if he ends it early with ground and pound or a submission from a dominant position on the mat.
Jim Miller (29-13, -150) vs. Jason Gonzalez (11-4, +130)
After getting blown out by Charles Oliveira in his last fight, it is time for Miller to try for yet another rebound. Gonzalez finally gets the chance to build off the momentum from his last fight, a 2017 “Fight of the Year” contender against Gregor Gillespie. Miller is fading, and his fights are hardly exciting anymore, other than the propensity to get knocked out. That is exactly what Gonzalez can do to someone, and he stops Miller in the second round via TKO.