UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 Main Card Odds, Picks, and Analysis

The excitement for UFC 329 has come to a head as Conor McGregor is set to make his return to the octagon. The UFC has found him a tough but exciting matchup against Max Holloway at 170 lbs.

The weight class certainly benefits McGregor, but obviously the recent experience favors Max. There are many questions surrounding McGregor about ring rust going into this fight.

The action leading up to such a great fight has to be worth it, and the UFC has done a great job filling the void. The co-main event matchup features a No. 1-contender bout in the lightweight division between Benoit Saint Denis and Paddy Pimblett.

With such great headliners, you would think the rest of the main card has to lack a little bit. You would be wrong because the UFC has provided three other great match ups to lead up to the highly anticipated headlining bouts.

MMA fans have waited long enough, so let's not waste any more time and jump into a preview of the tomorrow night's main card. I am here to break down the entire card, including a preview and odds of the highly anticipated International Fight Week card live from Las Vegas, Nevada!

All odds presented by Lucky Rebel as of 7/10/2026 at 1:22 p.m.

Check out the odds for the entire card at the best online sportsbooks available in the U.S.

Main Event: Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway 2 Preview – Welterweight

Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway Odds

• Moneyline: Conor McGregor (+195) vs. Max Holloway (-230)
• Round Total: 2.5 Total Rounds – Over (-115) / Under (-105)
• Most Likely Method of Victory: Max Holloway by KO/TKO/DQ (-130)

McGregor Returns to the Octagon

MMA fans across the globe have waited five long years for Conor McGregor's return to the octagon. The wait is finally over as the stage has been set for him to take on Max Holloway in a five-round main event.

McGregor has been out of action for the past year with a broken pinky toe. The injury was actually the reason he was forced to pull out of a scheduled match up with Michael Chandler last year.

The injury only put an even longer delay on his return. McGregor has not seen action since his horrific ankle injury against Dustin Poirier in 2021. Many fans are questioning whether he can return to prime form after all the adversity.

This is a fair concern in my opinion because it has been almost 10 years now since we have seen McGregor defeat a real opponent. His last win in general came over an aging Donald Cerrone in 2020.

In that bout, McGregor earned a quick Round 1 knockout victory and would have hoped to garner some momentum from that win. Life did not exactly go according to plan as he suffered back-to-back losses against Dustin Poirer, including the injury in 2021.

In my opinion, McGregor looked the worst of his career in both of those performances. It is safe to say the money may have gotten to him a little and he was not as focused as he should have been.

In the lead up to this bout McGregor has done a lot of press and been open with many of his struggles. The Irish superstar talked about his criminal cases, his substance abuse issues, and even the motivation struggles.

Can McGregor Find Success in His Return?

McGregor has also been very vocal about his newfound Catholic faith. All of this does not sound anything like the McGregor fans know and love best, but it sounds like the most mature version of him.

I do believe at a certain point money takes away the primal instinct needed to compete at a high level in this sport. The damage and the grind are hard to stay on top of when you are worth billions.

McGregor has shown this fight week he is back with something to prove, not to everyone else but himself. When Connor had this same type of fire in his belly previously, he was nearly unstoppable.

The biggest downfall of his return is that Max Holloway is absolutely a terrible bounce-back matchup. To make matters worse, Holloway is eager for a victory due to his poor performance against Charles Oliveira a few months ago.

A fight with Conor is considered a gift in the MMA world due to the hype and ticket sales that come with it. If Holloway was not already motivated to get back in the win column, a big financial and hype incentive should be enough to get him hungry.

When Max Holloway is at his best and can control the fight to be at his pace, he is entirely dangerous. Another key point to make here is the fight will happen at 170 pounds, meaning Max likely does not have to cut any weight.

This could come as an advantage for Holloway, who is guaranteed to be fresh deep into the fight. After all, Holloway has made a career out of being a cardio machine, breaking his opponents late in fights.

How Will Holloway Deal with 170 Pounds?

On the flip side of that, Max has never fought at 170, which could be worrisome. In recent memory, the once iron chin of Max Holloway has been seriously tested.

He received his first knockout loss to Ilia Topuria in 2024 and was cracked multiple times against Oliveira in March. There are already so many questions surrounding the matchup, and we can add if Holloway's chin can withstand 170 pounds to the list.

One thing is for sure and that is that the Mac is BACK baby! MMA fans across the globe are entirely privileged to see this great display of Mixed Martial Arts tomorrow night in Las Vegas.

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Co-Main Event: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoit Saint Denis Preview – Lightweight

Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoit Saint Denis Odds

• Moneyline: Paddy Pimblett (+122) vs Benoit Saint Denis (-142)
• Round Total: 2.5 Total Rounds – Over (+120) / Under (-140)
• Most Likely Method of Victory: Benoit Saint Denis by KO/TKO/DQ (+315)

Pimblett Looks to Slow Down Saint Denis

A fantastic co-main event awaits MMA fans across the globe Saturday night. As if there was not enough excitement for the main event, the UFC has given us a No. 1-contender matchup as an appetizer.

French prospect Benoit Saint Denis will take on U.K. fan favorite Paddy Pimblett in a high-level matchup. The matchup will be a big bounce-back spot for Pimblett as this is his first fight removed from competing for the interim lightweight belt in January.

Unfortunately for Pimblett, he is now running into the red-hot Benoit Saint Denis. The French prospect has ripped off four wins in a row, finishing all four bouts.

Saint Denis has been on a tear since suffering back-to-back losses in 2024. The losses not only marked the end to all current momentum he had, but also was the first time he lost back-to-back fights in his career.

The second loss, which came at the hands of Renato Moicano, was truly a career-altering beating. Saint Denis had his face split open and both eyes closed early on in the fight, leading to a doctor's stoppage.

The stoppage actually came at a bad time, as Saint Denis had worked himself back into the fight when the doctor stepped in between rounds. The first round was brutal, but Saint Denis started to find success in the second round and arguably won that round.

Can Saint Denis Continue His Run?

Unfortunately, it was a little too late for Saint Denis due to both his eyes being swollen shut. By then the damage could not be overcome, despite the heart and determination he showed to stay in the fight.

Many fighters fall off a cliff after receiving a beating like that. Benoit Saint Denis is not built from that type of cloth; he has made a complete 180 and looked the best of his career in the process.

The only thing standing in his way of an elusive lightweight title shot, is a scrappy Scouser named Paddy Pimblett. As previously mentioned, Pimblett isn't coming into this fight with much momentum, or possibly even much confidence.

In his last bout against current champ Justin Gaethje, Pimblett was dismantled over the course of five rounds. The striking was not particularly close, as Gaethje landed jab after jab with little resistance.

If I am being honest, most of the striking exchanges were very bar-room-brawl style. I think it is truly possible that Pimblett just bit off a little more than he could chew in the matchup.

Will Pimblett Bounce Back?

Despite having seven fights under the UFC banner, Gaethje was the first next-level type of matchup in Pimblett's career. Secondly, Gaethje truly brings such an aggressive style that it is hard to get any rhythm going against him.

In many fights Gaethje has caused a self-proclaimed "car crash," often drawing brawls out of his opponents. The same happened with Paddy, as he completely abandoned his wrestling and grappling.

Pimblett has drawn the short end of the stick here after struggling with Gaethje's style and approach. Benoit Saint Denis is relentless with takedowns and is more than willing to play Rock 'Em Sock 'Em Robots in there.

I also believe Saint Denis is much more durable here despite all the damage he has taken. Paddy is coming into this fight after receiving a ton of damage in his last fight, and if Saint Denis turns up the heat, he may look for the door sooner than previously.

The grappling will be an important part of this matchup as I believe it presents Paddy with the most winning equity. Saint Denis may be a relentless wrestler, but he is not a perfect one.

When shooting takedowns, especially when he is scrambling and hurt, Saint Denis has a tendency to stick his neck where it does not belong. Paddy has a very high-level submission game and could fully take advantage of a mistake from the French prospect.

Odds for Other UFC 329 Main Card Fights

Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista Odds – Bantamweight

• Moneyline: Cory Sandhagen (-145) vs. Mario Bautista (+125)
• Round Total: 2.5 Total Rounds – Over (-241) / Under (+201)
• Most Likely Method of Victory: Cory Sandhagen by Points (+150)

Brandon Royval vs Lone'er Kavanagh Odds – Flyweight

• Moneyline: Brandon Royval (+190) vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (-225)
• Round Total: 2.5 Total Rounds – Over (-180) / Under (+157)
• Most Likely Method of Victory: Lone'er Kavanagh by Points (+135)

King Green vs Terrance McKinney Odds – Lightweight

• Moneyline: King Green (-115) vs. Terrance Mckinney (-105)
• Round Total: 1.5 Total Rounds – Over (+289) / Under (-360)
• Most Likely Method of Victory: Terrance Mckinney by KO/TKO/DQ (+175)

The preliminary card for UFC 329 also features some interesting fights. Check out our UFC 329 preliminary card preview to check out the full card and odds for each fight, as well as in-depth analysis for Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov and Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison.

UFC 329 Schedule & FAQ

When is UFC 329?

• UFC 329 will take place Saturday, July 11th, 2026.

Where is UFC 329?

• UFC 329 will take place at The T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

What time does UFC 329 start?

• UFC 329 Early Preliminary Card Start Time: 5 p.m. ET
• UFC 329 Preliminary Card Start Time: 7 p.m. ET
• UFC 329 Main Card Start Time: 9 p.m. ET

How to Watch UFC 329?

• UFC 329 Early Preliminary Card Coverage: Paramount+
• UFC 329 Preliminary Card Coverage: Paramount+
• UFC 329 Main Card Coverage: Paramount+

How to Bet on UFC 329?

You can find UFC 329 odds at Lucky Rebel, BetOnline, and other top U.S. online sportsbooks, as well as the top Canadian sportsbooks, international sportsbooks, and VPN-friendly crypto sportsbooks.

Also, if you want to learn more about how to bet on UFC odds, check out our comprehensive UFC betting guide, which covers everything from basics of UFC fights, types of UFC bets, to helpful UFC betting strategies.