Noche UFC Preliminary Card Predictions & Odds: Where’s the Best Early Value?

Devon Platana

Written by: Devon Platana

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Noche UFC Preliminary Card Predictions & Odds: Where’s the Best Early Value? cover


The MMA world celebrates Mexican Independence Day this weekend with Noche UFC, airing live from Las Vegas, NV on Saturday. Betting News has spent the week covering the main card wagering opportunities, but now it’s time to give the preliminary fights some love.

There’s a lot to keep track of when it comes to the early betting action, but Betting News has you covered. Continue reading for the Noche UFC preliminary odds and my betting picks ahead of this weekend’s six early fights.

Noche UFC Preliminary Card Predictions & Odds

The Noche UFC odds listed below are courtesy of BetOnline as of Friday, Sept. 15 at 12:05 p.m.

Lupita Godinez (-400) vs. Elise Reed (+300) — Women's Strawweight

Lupita Godinez (10-3) is the clear-cut favorite over Elise Reed (7-3) and the gap is only growing. After all, “Loopy” was BetOnline’s -365 moneyline favorite on Monday and those odds have only improved to -400 since then.

I see Godinez’s grappling giving her the edge this weekend. She averages 3.43 takedowns per 15 minutes, whereas Reed averages 0.66. While the underdog boasts a 75% takedown success rate, Godinez should fend her off with an 81% defense rate.

Godinez rarely finishes her opponents, so take her to win by points (+125) as the best bet. Having said that, if you think there might be an upset, I’m also comfortable with the fight going the distance (-155).

Best Bet: Godinez via Points (+125) or Fight to Go the Distance (-155)

Roman Kopylov (-310) vs. Josh Fremd (+260) — Middleweight

Roman Kopylov (11-2) guns for his fourth win in a row at Noche UFC. Standing in his way of another victory is Josh Fremd (11-4), who’s coming off back-to-back victories over Sedriques Dumas and Jamie Pickett.

I really like Kopylov in this fight, especially after winning each of his last three outings via KO/TKO. Fremd isn’t that great of a striker and he’s only had about a month off since his last fight.

I see Fremd’s bigger frame helping him keep the favorite at a distance, though, meaning I see it is more likely that Kopylov will have to go the distance to notch a win in Sin City.

Best Bet: Fight to Go the Distance — Yes (+160)

Edgar Chairez (-215) vs. Daniel Lacerda (+185) — Flyweight

After losing to Tatsuro Taira in his debut, Edgar Chairez (10-5) hopes to turn things around at Noche UFC. Standing opposite him is Daniel Lacerda (11-5), who’s looking to avoid a fifth consecutive loss.

This is one fight where I wouldn’t overthink things. Lacerda absolutely doesn’t belong in the UFC at this point, having been finished while never making it out of the second round in each of his first four fights.

Chairez has a solid submission arsenal, so I won’t be surprised if he snaps or taps Lacerda this weekend.

Best Bet: Chairez via Submission (+250)

Tracy Cortez (-125) vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius (+105) — Women's Flyweight

Tracy Cortez (10-1) has been on fire, bringing a 10-fight winning streak into Noche UFC. She’s facing a tough opponent, though, as Jasmine Jasudavicius (9-2) enters following back-to-back unanimous decision victories over Gabriella Fernandes and Miranda Maverick.

Noche UFC preliminary card prediction, odds & best bets
Will Jasmine Jasudavicius (above) be the one who finally puts an end to Tracy Cortez’s winning streak?

This is a fight that I could honestly see going either way. While Cortez is on a huge winning streak, Jasudavicius is still a force who’s going 5-1 in her last six fights. I won’t be shocked if this is a back-and-forth clash that goes the distance.

There isn’t a ton of value if it does go the distance (-400 odds) though, so let’s back the underdog winning this one outright.

Best Bet: Jasudavicius Outright (+105)

Alex Reyes (+410) vs. Charlie Campbell (-560) — Lightweight

Alex Reyes (13-3) is the major underdog here after getting knocked out by Mike Perry’s knee in his UFC debut. Meanwhile, Charlie Campbell (7-2) debuts here after knocking out five of his seven previous opponents.

Campbell’s a lethal striker who’s finished two of his last three opponents in the first round. Meanwhile, it only took Reyes just over a minute to get KO’d by Perry in his most recent fight… nearly six years ago.

Reyes will have a ton of rust, especially after missing all this time due to a spinal infection. Comeback stories are fun, but Campbell will end this one before it even gets started.

Best Bet: Campbell via KO/TKO in Round 1 (-125)

Josefine Knutsson (-805) vs. Marnic Mann (+555) — Women’s Strawweight

The undefeated Josefine Knutsson (6-0) debuts at Noche UFC after defeating Isis Verbeek (via UD) on Dana White’s Contender Series 2023. She’s taking on Marnic Mann (6-1), who’s had a solid start to her own MMA career.

Mann didn’t impress on DWCS2022, getting out-hit 40-19 (with 18% striking defense) by Bruna Brasil while being taken down twice. She won’t be able to handle Knutsson, who’s a decent striker in addition to averaging 2.9 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 71% success rate.

Mann is outmatched here and I’d be shocked if she even survives all three rounds.

Best Bet: Knutsson Inside the Distance (+105)

Noche UFC Event FAQ

When is Noche UFC?

  • Noche UFC will take place on Saturday, September 16, 2023.

Where is Noche UFC?

  • Noche UFC will take place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

What time does Noche UFC start?

  • Preliminary Card Start Time: 7 p.m. ET
  • Main Card Start Time: 10 p.m. ET

How can I watch Noche UFC?

  • Both Noche UFC main and preliminary cards can be viewed exclusively on ESPN+.

How can I bet on Noche UFC?

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Devon Platana
Devon Platana

Devon is a Master of Journalism graduate who joined the sports betting world in 2020. His favorite leagues to cover are the NHL, NBA and NFL, and has a soft spot for fantasy football specifically. Outside of sports, he enjoys the finer things in life like pasta, live music and getting even more tattoos.

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