Grasso vs Shevchenko 2 Prediction & Best Bets for Noche UFC: Lightning Doesn’t Strike Twice

Devon Platana

Written by: Devon Platana

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Grasso vs Shevchenko 2 prediction, odds & best bets


The UFC is celebrating Mexican Independence Day this weekend with Noche UFC, live from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday. The event is headlined by a massive main event as Alexa Grasso defends the women’s flyweight championship against Valentina Shevchenko in a rematch from UFC 285.

It’s been just over six months since the dangerous duo previously squared off. Shevchenko was in search of her eighth consecutive title defense until Grasso won via submission in the fourth round, capturing the first championship of her career.

If you’re looking to add some extra excitement to your Noche UFC experience, there are a plethora of main event bets worth checking out.

Keep reading this Grasso vs Shevchenko 2 betting preview for the latest fight odds, history, and best bets for the weekend.

Noche UFC: Grasso vs Shevchenko 2 Odds

Odds courtesy of BetOnline as of Tuesday, Sept. 12 at 9:20 a.m. ET.


  • Alexa Grasso (+145)
  • Valentina Shevchenko (-165)

Will the Fight Go the Distance?

  • Yes (-125)
  • No (-105)

Round Total

  • Over 4.5 Rounds (-140)
  • Under 4.5 Rounds (+110)

Grasso vs Shevchenko 2 Tale of the Tape

Alexa Grasso — Valentina Shevchenko

  • Record: 16-3 — 23-4
  • Height: 5’5” — 5’5”
  • Reach: 66” — 66”
  • Weight: 125 lbs — 125 lbs
  • Age: 30 — 35
  • Fighting Stance: Orthodox — Southpaw
  • Knockouts: 4 — 8

Grasso vs Shevchenko 2 Noche UFC Preview

Even though Grasso was victorious in the last encounter, oddsmakers don’t see lightning striking twice. Shevchenko is BetOnline’s moneyline favorite this weekend at -165 odds, carrying an implied win probability of 62.3%.

It isn’t too surprising that Shevchenko is one of the most dominant women that this sport has seen. It’s important to remember that she went undefeated for over five years after winning the flyweight championship, racking up nine consecutive victories before losing to Grasso.

Furthermore, Shevchenko was actually on her way to successfully defending the gold at UFC 285. “Bullet” was outstriking Grasso with much better accuracy (60% vs. 32%) and even landed four takedowns on the Mexican combatant before losing following a poorly timed kick.

Shevchenko is also the better overall fighter here. Not only does she absorb significantly fewer strikes per minute than Grasso (1.99 vs. 4.07), but she’s also a beast of a wrestler, averaging 2.57 takedowns per minute with 64% accuracy and 72% defense.

Although Grasso isn’t the worst grappler, she only averages 0.38 takedowns per 15 mins with 44% accuracy. Her takedown defense is above average (61%), but it’s hard to imagine her out-wrestling the challenger.

At the same time, the champion shouldn’t be underestimated. She already proved her detractors wrong earlier this year by upsetting Shevchenko, extending her winning streak to five consecutive fights in the process.

Grasso might not be the better fighter, but she does know how to seize an opportunity. If Shevchenko makes another untimely mistake, expect the 30-year-old to capitalize on it.

Noche UFC: Grasso vs Shevchenko 2 Betting Trends and Markets

There’s nothing wrong with betting on the Grasso vs Shevchenko moneyline. After all, a $100 bet on Shevchenko would lead to a $160.61 payout while the same wager for a Grasso victory would lead to $245.

Having said that, some bettors are looking for bigger wins when it comes to the Noche UFC headline act. Fortunately, sportsbooks like BetOnline have a wide array of options that can help you win big.

For example, Shevchenko’s likeliest victory method is to win by points (+175). Her style often leads to lengthier bouts, proven by an average fight time of 17:29. She’s also gone the distance 10 times in her career, emerging victorious on eight occasions.

grasso vs shevchenko 2 prediction, odds & picks for noche ufc
Will Valentina Shevchenko need to go the distance to recapture the flyweight gold at Noche UFC?

On the flip side, Grasso is most likely to win by either points or submission with both options sitting at +350.

After all, Grasso went the distance five times in her seven previous fights, winning four of those outings. The two other fights during that stretch ended in submission victories for her — the first two of her career.

If you’re trying to pinpoint when and how the fight ends, Shevchenko is most likely to win by first-round KO/TKO (+1100). Although she’s knocked out eight past opponents, only two of those victories occurred in the first round with the most recent being in 2013.

Grasso vs Shevchenko 2 Prediction & Picks for Noche UFC

In a fight that could go either way, I’m taking Shevchenko to win at Noche UFC. At the end of the day, she’s the better fighter who could beat Grasso in several ways. I see Shevchenko being motivated after her historic reign ended to prove that she still has ‘it.’

As for a Grasso vs Shevchenko 2 bet I like, I’m taking Shevchenko to win inside the distance (+215). She knows how to take out her opponents, highlighted by a 65.2% finish rate. After how she was getting the better of Grasso last time, I expect Shevchenko to pick up from where she left off to prove her latest loss was a fluke.

What better way to do that than to defeat Grasso before the round limit is reached?

Noche UFC Event FAQ

When is Noche UFC?

  • Noche UFC will take place on Saturday, September 16, 2023.

Where is Noche UFC?

  • Noche UFC will take place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

What time does Noche UFC start?

  • Preliminary Card Start Time: 7 p.m. ET
  • Main Card Start Time: 10 p.m. ET

How can I watch Noche UFC?

Both Noche UFC main and preliminary cards can be viewed exclusively on ESPN+.

How can I bet on Noche UFC?

All of the top online sports betting sites will have Noche UFC odds, but here are some of the sites we recommend most for MMA betting enthusiasts.

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Devon Platana
Devon Platana

Devon is a Master of Journalism graduate who joined the sports betting world in 2020. His favorite leagues to cover are the NHL, NBA and NFL, and has a soft spot for fantasy football specifically. Outside of sports, he enjoys the finer things in life like pasta, live music and getting even more tattoos.

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