World Baseball Classic Semifinal Odds and Preview: Venezuela vs Italy
Written by: Danny Burke
Published: Mon Mar 16, 2026, 10:41 am ET
Read Time: 3 minutes
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One half of the World Baseball Classic championship matchup has been decided, and now we await the result of tonight's semifinal showdown between Venezuela and Italy to determine who will face tournament favorite United States in the final.
What are the odds for tonight's matchup, and what should you expect from this semifinal clash? Let's break it all down in our World Baseball Classic semifinal odds and preview for Venezuela vs Italy.
Venezuela vs Italy Odds
Courtesy of Lucky Rebel
Moneyline: Venezuela (-208) | Italy (+153)
Runline: Venezuela -1.5 (-133) | Italy +1.5 (+100)
Total: Over 10 (-120) | Under 10 (-110)
Venezuela vs Italy Preview
The undefeated Italians are once again an underdog, but that didn't stop them earlier in the tournament when they upset the United States in pool play, winning 8-6. Michael Lorenzen pitched 4.2 innings in that game, allowing just two hits while striking out a pair. Lorenzen is slotted to start again for Italy tonight, though he'll face a much tougher challenge against a formidable Venezuelan lineup.
Following that upset win over Team USA, Italy handled business against Mexico, 9-1, in its final pool game before knocking out Puerto Rico in the quarterfinals, winning 8-6 and helping us cash our moneyline ticket along the way.
I'm not quite as confident in their abilities tonight, however. Venezuela's roster is simply deeper, headlined by stars like Ronald Acuña Jr., Luis Arraez, Willson and William Contreras, Wilyer Abreu, Jackson Chourio and Maikel Garcia.
The most notable name in Italy's lineup is Vinnie Pasquantino, who has played a major role in his team's success this tournament. While he's hitting just .211, Pasquantino owns an impressive 1.084 OPS with three home runs and four RBIs.
The Italian Stallion and his team are set to face right-hander Keider Montero. The Venezuelan starter appeared in 20 games for the Detroit Tigers last season, making 12 starts while posting a 4.37 ERA. His numbers may not jump off the page, but Montero did deliver a strong three-inning stint in pool play against Nicaragua, allowing no runs on three hits while striking out two.
Meanwhile, Lorenzen's overall MLB track record isn't overly encouraging either. Over the past six seasons, he has posted an xFIP of 4.20 or higher, and his ERA dipped below 4.18 only once during that span. The 34-year-old has bounced around the league and is a familiar arm to many hitters, which could work against him tonight against a Venezuelan lineup filled with plenty of big-league talent.
Venezuela enters this matchup riding momentum after a dramatic win over defending champion Japan to reach the semifinals. With the deeper lineup, plenty of confidence coming into this game and what should be strong crowd support in Miami, I expect the Venezuelans to control this matchup offensively.
I'd look to lay the run and a half with Team Venezuela as they book their spot in the WBC final against the United States.
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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