Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres (July 7): Padres Looking to Get Hot at Home to Close the First Half

Matt Wiesenfeld

The Washington Nationals are having a wild season. For so long it looked like they would be irrelevant. Then OF Kyle Schwarber found his power stroke and everything seemed to be coming together. Then he got hurt and the team is struggling again. The latest MLB betting odds have the Nats third in the odds to win the NL East, coming in at +650 behind the New York Mets (-230) and Atlanta Braves (+500).

For San Diego, we are getting two different teams. One that is under .500 on the road and one that wins about two-thirds of the time at home. With the way they can pitch, you would think they could not have such crazy swings in their play.

The Padres have a great chance to get on a nice run heading into the All-Star break. After they host the Nats, the Rockies come to town to close the first half. The NL West is fascinating and the Padres are right there. They have just two fewer wins than the Giants and Dodgers.

Losing Schwarber for a stretch hurts, but he was not going to be able to keep up that torrid pace. The top of the NL East has not turned out as expected, but it is a tight race. It is always interesting to see where a team can go after a surge is over.

Washington Nationals (41-43) vs San Diego Padres (51-37), MLB Network, 10:10 PM ET

Probable Pitchers

  • Washington Nationals: Patrick Corbin (5-7, 5.56 ERA)
  • San Diego Padres: Chris Paddack (4-5, 4.56 ERA)

Nationals vs Padres Betting Odds

  • Moneyline: Washington +153, San Diego -183
  • Total: OVER 8.5 (-108), UNDER 8.5 (-112)
  • Run Line: Washington +1.5 (-132), San Diego -1.5 (+110)

Odds are via FanDuel Sportsbook as of Wednesday, July 7 at 10:45 am ET. For MLB betting odds for today’s other matchups, check out our MLB odds.

Nationals vs Padres Betting Consensus

  • Moneyline: Washington 40%, San Diego 60%
  • Total: Over 40%, Under 60%
  • Run Line: Washington 100%, San Diego 0%

Washington Nationals vs. San Diego Padres July 7 Matchup: Picks, Odds, Stats and More

Nationals Need to Find Some Regular Offense

Schwarber’s hot streak woke up the offense and the team. Now it is time for others to carry the load and by others, I mean OF Juan Soto. Coming into the season he was expected to be one of the top five hitters in the game, but that has not been the case. Yes, he has missed some time, and now they need him. SS Trea Turner has done a great job but it is Soto, with his patience and power, that makes this offense work. First baseman Josh Bell has as much power as anyone in the game, and he might be coming around too. There is enough there but these guys have to perform.

When the Nats have had success over the last few years, it has been led by pitching. Max Scherzer is doing his part, but Stephen Strasburg is hurt and others have not been stepping up. It is amazing that the Nats are near .500 given they are last in the Majors in quality starts and do not own a strong bullpen. They have lots of room for improvement on the mound.

The Padres Look to Close First Half on a High Note

The Padres are right where they are supposed to be in terms of proximity to the Dodgers; it's just that the Giants are in the way. There is a lot to like with the Padres. Their pitching is legit and should maintain their top five status, while the offense has room to grow as only SS Fernando Tatis Jr. has been a steady threat. Guys like outfielders Tommy Pham and Wil Myers and first baseman Eric Hosmer will have to be improved in the second half to get to seasonal averages. That is a very reasonable aim.

On the mound, the Padres are one of the best in the business. They have studs and they are able to mix and match with the occasional bullpen day too. Their 2.84 bullpen ERA is the best in the Majors, with no one else even under 3.00. The only thing to worry about is that their pen has pitched more innings than any other team, so perhaps there is some fatigue coming. San Diego looks great to continue their winning ways and might be undervalued as a third-place team.

Patrick Corbin Home vs. Away

  • Home: 5-3, 4.88 ERA, 51.2 IP, 43 Ks, 15 BBs
  • Away: 0-4, 6.56 ERA, 35.2 IP, 27 Ks, 14 BBs

Chris Paddack Home vs. Away

  • Home: 2-3, 4.18 ERA, 32.1 IP, 37 Ks, 11 BBs
  • Away: 2-2, 3.98 ERA, 40.2 IP, 38 Ks, 7 BBs

In 2019 Chris Paddack was looking like the future of the Padres rotation. They have invested heavily in that area, so there is not the same pressure now. Still, they would like to get him back to that form. We see it on occasion, but he is not quite there yet. Corbin has had the same kind of up and down year. When he is on, he can be one of the best lefties in the game. The splits are showing that is unlikely to come on the road though.

Nationals vs. Padres Best Bet: Padres Run Line – With the way the Padres play at home, they are the play this evening. I was hoping to get more value on the moneyline as Paddack is not one of their frontline starters. But it just wasn’t there in this spot, so the run line is the play. The Padres have been great against lefties this season, going 14-6 SU. This is not a good spot for Corbin at all.

July 7 MLB Betting Matchups – National League

MLB Betting Matchup: Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates, ATT Sportsnet Pittsburgh, 12:35 PM ET

Probable Pitchers:

  • Atlanta Braves: Drew Smyly (6-3, 4.42 ERA)
  • Pittsburgh Pirates: Will Crowe (1-5, 6.26 ERA)

Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates July 7 Matchup: Picks, Odds, Stats and More

Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets, ESPN, 2:10 PM ET

Probable Pitchers

  • Milwaukee Brewers: Corbin Burnes (4-4, 2.41 ERA)
  • New York Mets: Jacob deGrom (7-2, 0.95 ERA)

Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets, Bally Sports Wisconsin, 7:10 PM ET

Probable Pitchers

  • Milwaukee Brewers: Brett Anderson (2-5, 4.69 ERA)
  • New York Mets: TBD

Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets July 7 Matchup: Picks, Odds, Stats and More

MLB Betting Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins, Bally Sports Florida, 7:10 PM ET

Probable Pitchers:

  • Los Angeles Dodgers: TBD
  • Miami Marlins: TBD

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins July 7 Matchup: Picks, Odds, Stats and More

Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs, Marquee Sports Network, 8:05 PM ET

Probable Pitchers

  • Philadelphia Phillies: Zach Wheeler (6-4, 2.05 ERA)
  • Chicago Cubs: Alec Mills (3-2, 4.85 ERA)

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs July 7 Matchup: Picks, Odds, Stats and More

MLB Betting Matchup: Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks, Bally Sports Arizona, 9:40 PM ET

Probable Pitchers

  • Colorado Rockies: Antonio Senzatela (2-7, 4.58 ERA)
  • Arizona Diamondbacks: Humberto Castellanos (0-1, 3.09 ERA)

Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks July 7 Matchup: Picks, Odds, Stats and More

MLB Betting Matchup: St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants, NBC Sports Bay Area, 9:45 PM ET

Probable Pitchers:

  • St. Louis Cardinals: Johan Oviedo (0-4, 5.14 ERA)
  • San Francisco Giants: Alex Wood (7-3, 3.89 ERA)

St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants July 7 Matchup: Picks, Odds, Stats and More