Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies MLB Picks and Predictions: June 23, 2026
Written by: Justin Carlucci
Published: Tue Jun 23, 2026, 9:46 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
mlb
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-1.5
-102
8
-115o
-168
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+1.5
-110
8
+102u
+153
We're back for MLB picks on Tuesday as the Philadelphia Phillies visit the nation's capital to take on the Washington Nationals. This one features a battle of two pitchers on completely opposite ends of the talent spectrum, as Jesus Luzardo takes the hill for the Phillies against Zack Littell for the Nationals. Let's dive into my best MLB picks for this NL East matchup!
Check out the best odds on the market at our top online sportsbooks.
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies MLB Betting Insights
Jesus Luzardo gets the start tonight on the road against the Nationals.
First things first — I'm no meteorologist, but it looks like it's going to rain a good bit in the Northeast on Tuesday. That said, the hourly forecast looks like it could clear up later in the afternoon and evening, so if they tarp the field and play it smart, I think we'll have baseball — and some great MLB betting on tap for Tuesday night.
Now, the headline is the pitching matchup, and it's a doozy in terms of the talent gap. Jesus Luzardo is an absolute force on the mound for the Phillies. Zack Littell, on the other hand, is the polar opposite, and I'm really not sure how this guy has a Major League job taking the ball every fifth day right now.
Matchup Information — Nationals vs. Phillies — June 23
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Venue: Nationals Park (Washington, D.C.)
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Date: Tuesday, June 23, 2026
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First Pitch: 6:45 PM ET
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Broadcast: NBCSP / Nationals.TV
Phillies vs. Nationals Pitching Matchup
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Philadelphia Phillies (42-36): LHP Jesus Luzardo (6-4, 4.20 ERA, 97 SO)
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Washington Nationals (41-38): RHP Zack Littell (6-6, 5.45 ERA, 41 SO)
Phillies vs. Nationals Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of our friends at BetOnline:
Run Line
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Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+102)
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Washington Nationals +1.5 (-122)
Moneyline
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Philadelphia Phillies -156
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Washington Nationals +141
Total
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Over 9 (+102)
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Under 9 (-122)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals MLB Picks
Kyle Schwarber could feast against the Nationals on Tuesday.
Phillies vs. Nationals Prediction: Over 9 Runs
Best Bet: Phillies/Nationals Over 9 (+102) — BetOnline.ag Sportsbook
This one starts and ends with Zack Littell, and the under-the-hood numbers are alarming for him. He ranks in the first percentile in expected ERA, which makes his 5.45 actual ERA look almost generous. According to Baseball Savant, he sits in the 10th percentile or worse in ground-ball rate, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate. He strikes out an abnormally low 13% of batters, and he ranks in the first percentile in average exit velocity allowed.
Meanwhile, the Phillies could probably clear this total on their own on a crazy offensive day. However, here's the part that pushes me firmly to the over: the Nationals are a pesky team, and they've got something big trending their way. In the month of June, across 138 plate appearances, they own the highest weighted runs created plus in all of baseball against left-handed pitching. Dating back to the beginning of May — a much larger, more meaningful sample — they rank third in baseball against southpaws in that same category. Still, even with Luzardo's elite stuff on the bump, any couple of runs the Nats can muster is a huge bonus toward this number, because I'm confident the Phillies are going to do their part.
Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper Player Props
I also want to attack Littell with left-handed power, because the splits are absurd. Littell has surrendered 20 home runs already this season, and 16 of them have come against left-handed hitters. He's allowed a .355 ISO to lefties. Now look at the Phillies' bats: Kyle Schwarber carries a .353 ISO against right-handed pitching this season, and Bryce Harper sits at a .319 ISO against righties in 2026. Harper has been on fire lately — he went 2-for-4 with a pair of singles on Monday and homered in each of the two previous games over the weekend. And Schwarber? The guy is just unbelievable at the plate right now.
I don't mind taking both Schwarber and Harper to hit home runs or collect 2+ total bases here. I wouldn't go crazy parlaying both with meaningful money, but a small splash on a two-leg parlay of both going deep is a fun, reasonable swing given this matchup.
Additionally, once Littell departs, things don't get any easier for Washington. The Nationals' bullpen has allowed an MLB-high 55 home runs this season. There are going to be plenty of opportunities for runs on the Phillies' side. Add it all up — a bottom-of-the-barrel starter, a Nationals offense that crushes lefties, and a Washington bullpen that surrenders homers at a record clip — and I'll happily take the over 9 runs. We just need the Nats to chip in a couple.
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Carlucci spent nearly a decade as a reporter, editor, and on-air talent in the Poconos. His transition into the fantasy sports and sports betting industries began in 2016 with roles at Daily Fantasy Insider and Daily Roto Sharks, which led to positions at Better Collective (RotoGrinders). During this period, his work gained national recognition through regular contributions to the New York Post and featured appearances on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Carlucci has also contributed to Fantasy Alarm and most recently served as Managing Editor at Third Planet Media (Props.com), where he led content strategy, editorial direction, and served as the forward-facing voice of the brand through live streams and podcasts. You can also find his work at Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life and Hard Rock Digital. He's for some reason a die-hard Titans and 76ers fan and has developed trust issues from "trusting the process." Follow him on X @ThejCarlucci!
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