Short Fence Long Balls: Longshot Predictions | January 15, 2026
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Update: Thu Jan 15, 2026, 2:09 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
mlb
The Kansas City Royals could be one of the most intriguing teams to track entering the 2026 season, and the changes at Kauffman Stadium only add to the intrigue. With the outfield fences moving in, the Royals offense has a clear opportunity to take another step forward. Power bats like Vinnie Pasquantino stand to benefit the most, especially after already showing significant growth at the plate. Between rising home run expectations, longshot futures, and a lineup built to capitalize at home, this season sets up as a potential breakout year worth monitoring closely from day one.
2026 Longshots Futures
Will we see another 30+ home run season from Vinnie Pasquantino in 2026?
News came out this week that Kauffman Stadium, the home of the Kansas City Royals, will be moving the outfield fence eight to ten feet in to make the park more friendly to hitters. This is nothing but great news for the Royals, who have been very dominant at home over the last few years. The new field renovations should only improve an offense that is already on the rise. It sparked a few props that I may want to get involved with for the 2026 season.
A new feel to The K.
We're bringing in the walls at Kauffman Stadium, creating more potential for home runs, extra-base hits, home run robberies, and bringing fans closer to the action than ever before. pic.twitter.com/1RcdRli0p5
— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) January 13, 2026
The Italian Nightmare should be in line for an even bigger breakout season than what he showed in 2025 with the new stadium renovations. The Royals 28 year old first baseman hit 32 home runs in his second full season of play, the fourth of his career. On top of that, he posted a .264 batting average with a sub .800 OPS and a .456 slugging percentage. I already envisioned him as a potential 40 home run hitter this season, so taking the over at 25.5 feels like a steal.
Vinnie Pasquantino Home Run Total
- Over: 25.5 (-115)
- Under: 25.5 (-115)
I have also gone out of my way to dabble in some longshots. I have a running bit where I make it a point to bet a future on Pasquantino every year. Last year I took him to lead the league in doubles, and he finished with 33. Funny enough, his teammate Bobby Witt Jr. led the league with 47. This year I have already jumped into two major longshots, both based entirely on the new field renovations. I sprinkled a quarter unit on Pasquantino to win American League MVP at 250 to one. On top of that, I took him to lead the league in home runs at 150 to one. Again, two major longshot fun bets to root for and enjoy throughout the season.
I've got @VPasquantino hitting 6-8 more homers last year if Kauffman had the new 2026 dimensions. If it was 8, it would have been 40! pic.twitter.com/tAojvXmWgl
— Jomboy (@Jomboy_) January 13, 2026
Derek Carty has Pasquantino's 2026 home run projections only ticking up from 22.7 to 23.6 after the news of the renovations. Even as a numbers nerd myself, I disagree with those projections. Pasquantino hit over 30 home runs in his second full season as a starter and now gets a shorter porch in right field to work with. I think he is set up for an explosive 2026 season if he stays healthy. Most importantly, he needs to continue improving against left handed pitching. In 2025, he batted .212 with a .250 OBP and a .614 OPS against southpaws. The slugger managed just six home runs off them, but if he can even get to ten this season, that would be a massive improvement.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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