We head down to the Lou, where Cardinals catcher Ivan Herrera draws yet another great matchup. The question is, can he break out of this slight slump? Only three total bases in his last 17 at-bats, Herrera feels #due, as the kids would say. Today feels like the day he explodes.
Herrera crushes left-handed pitching, sporting a .333 batting average, .822 slugging percentage, and a 236 wRC+ against southpaws at home this season. He holds an elite rating in both of Batters-Box's timeframe ratings.
Freeland vs. Herrera
Herrera faces Rockies starter Kyle Freeland, who owns the second-worst rating on the day among starters. He carries poor marks in matchup wOBA, ISO, hard contact, and strikeout percentage, while allowing over 44% hard contact this season.
Freeland's struggles go deeper—76% of his pitches grade below league average, per FanGraphs. Right-handed hitters are teeing off, batting .317 with a .508 slugging percentage and .870 OPS. Over his last 90 right-handed batters faced, Freeland has allowed 45% hard contact and 3.15 HR/9, with opponents posting a .433 xBA, .744 xSLG, and .438 xwOBA.
Herrera matches up well against every pitch in Freeland's arsenal. Given his dominance against lefties this year, it is tough to stay away from him tonight. His recent slump only adds to the appeal, as the underlying metrics suggest he is still making strong contact. Everything lines up for the Cardinals catcher to deliver a big night at the plate. Trust that he is #due.
Best Bet: Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110) odds via BetOnline
More Baseball – August 12
Nationals vs. Royals: First Five Props — Breaking down pitching matchups and where the early-game value lies.
Cubs vs. Blue Jays: First Five Team Totals — Why the Blue Jays bats could get going early.
