Highs and Lows: Expert Picks in the MLB Today
Written by: Justin Carlucci
Published: Thu Sep 17, 2026, 9:00 am ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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You've found my MLB expert picks for Thursday, Sept. 17! We are attacking two very different environments on this slate: a Coors Field over in Colorado and a low total in Tampa Bay.
Before we dive into the best MLB picks today, check out our MLB Picks Page and MLB Odds Page.
MLB Expert Picks Today (Sept. 17)
The Padres and Rockies are staring at an 11-run total, which is always a big number. But getting over 11 at even money without the 11.5 hook is a spot I am willing to take. On the other end of the spectrum, Drew Rasmussen gives us an ace-level arm to lean on in a Rays-Athletics matchup with a 7.5-run total.
Padres vs. Rockies MLB Odds
Odds via BetOnline.ag, an industry leader in the sports betting world:
- San Diego Padres Moneyline (-160)
- Colorado Rockies Moneyline (+145)
- Over 11 (+100)
- Under 11 (-120)
Padres vs. Rockies MLB Prediction Today
Best Bet: Padres vs. Rockies Over 11 (+100) | BetOnline.ag
My first MLB best bet today is Padres vs. Rockies over 11 runs.
We are going to Coors Field in Denver, so I understand why a lot of bettors will see an 11-run total and immediately move toward the under. It is a big number. But this is the type of matchup where the environment and starting-pitcher situation justify it.
Tanner Gordon gets the ball for Colorado, and the overall track record has not been good. His 5.55 ERA is backed by a 4.58 xERA, which suggests he has had some poor luck, but there is still a lot to be concerned about. Gordon posted a 6.33 ERA across roughly 75 innings last season, and he had an ERA north of 8.00 in his 2024 big-league sample.
According to Baseball Savant, Gordon ranks in the seventh percentile in both barrel rate and ground-ball rate, which is a brutal combination when pitching at altitude. He has also been far worse at home than on the road, posting a 7.47 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP across 53 innings in Colorado this season.
That is a nightmare setup against a Padres lineup that should be capable of doing most of the work for us. San Diego makes enough contact and enough power to put pressure on Gordon early. And once the Rockies turn this game over to the bullpen, the Padres should have even more opportunities to add on.
Michael King is obviously the more trustworthy starter in this matchup. He owns a 3.03 ERA and has been strong since the All-Star break. But his 4.43 xERA indicates he may have run a little fortunate, and Coors Field is a uniquely difficult assignment for every pitcher.
King's road ERA is also a tick higher than his home mark. He has only made two appearances at Coors Field, so there is no reason to overreact to the sample, but he has allowed six runs in 5 2/3 innings there. It is a small sample, but it reinforces the obvious: pitching in Denver is not the same as pitching almost anywhere else.
The weather may not be quite as hot as it was a month ago, but it is still Coors Field. Gordon's home struggles, the Rockies' bullpen concerns, and San Diego's ability to do damage make this number playable.
I also like that BetOnline is giving us 11 at even money rather than forcing us to clear an 11.5 total.
Give me Padres vs. Rockies over 11 runs.
Rays vs. Athletics Expert Pick for Thursday
My second MLB pick today is Athletics vs. Rays under 7.5 runs.
This is the complete opposite of the Colorado game. We are looking at a low total, a much friendlier pitching environment, and a Rays starter who remains one of the best pitchers in baseball that nobody seems to discuss enough.
Athletics vs. Rays MLB Odds
Odds via BetOnline.ag, an industry leader in the sports betting world:
- Athletics Moneyline (+240)
- Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (-270)
- Over 7.5 (-115)
- Under 7.5 (-105)
Rays vs. Athletics MLB Prediction (Sept. 17)
Best Bet: Athletics vs. Rays Under 7.5 (-105) | BetOnline.ag
Drew Rasmussen has been excellent again this season. He owns a 2.81 ERA and a 3.09 xERA, does not walk many hitters, and carries a 25% strikeout rate. He also ranks in the 77th percentile in chase rate, which is a big reason he consistently avoids big innings.
Rasmussen has been a quality starter for multiple seasons now. If he stays healthy, he is the kind of pitcher who can carry Tampa Bay through a difficult matchup by himself. That is exactly what we are betting on here.
However, Jeffrey Springs is the bigger question. He has been more vulnerable at home while pitching at Sutter Health Park, where the extreme heat and minor-league dimensions have not done him any favors. The move away from that environment matters.
Springs still needs to hold up his end of this bargain for the under to hit. Tampa Bay's offense is capable of scoring, and the Rays are a heavy favorite for a reason. But Rasmussen gives us the high-end starter needed to keep the Athletics from doing much damage, and Springs should be in a better pitching environment than he has been at home.
This is not a bet that needs a perfect game. It is a bet that asks Rasmussen to pitch like himself and Springs to provide a competent five or so innings before turning it over to the bullpen.
At 7.5, that's enough for me.
Give me Athletics vs. Rays under 7.5 runs.
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Carlucci spent nearly a decade as a reporter, editor, and on-air talent in the Poconos. His transition into the fantasy sports and sports betting industries began in 2016 with roles at Daily Fantasy Insider and Daily Roto Sharks, which led to positions at Better Collective (RotoGrinders). During this period, his work gained national recognition through regular contributions to the New York Post and featured appearances on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Carlucci has also contributed to Fantasy Alarm and most recently served as Managing Editor at Third Planet Media (Props.com), where he led content strategy, editorial direction, and served as the forward-facing voice of the brand through live streams and podcasts. You can also find his work at Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life and Hard Rock Digital. He's for some reason a die-hard Titans and 76ers fan and has developed trust issues from "trusting the process." Follow him on X @ThejCarlucci!
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