Back to the diamond we go with a full slate of games. Tuesdays are easily my favorite day of the week. Every team plays, I get to craft write-ups for you sickos, and I go live at 4:30 Eastern talking all things baseball on our Twitch channel.
Today, we are backing the Blue Jays first five inning team total over 2.5 at even money. They enter the slate with the highest rated offense on Batters-Box's current season ratings. The lineup features three elite rated hitters, five above the league strikeout rate, and four above the ground ball rate.
At home this season, Toronto is the sixth best scoring team in the first five innings, averaging just shy of three runs per first five at 2.89.
Brown vs. Blue Jays
This evening they face Chicago Cubs right hander Ben Brown, who has been struggling of late. He enters with the third worst pitcher rating on the day, sporting poorly rated marks in matchup wOBA, ISO, and hard contact. This season he is allowing 37% hard contact to opposing hitters.
In his last 90 hitters faced on the road, Brown owns a 7.52 ERA and 6.02 xERA, while giving up 53% hard contact and 3.10 HR/9. Those hitters have posted a .354 xBA, .727 xSLG, and .391 xwOBA against him. To make matters worse, in his last five road games his ERA is 8.33 and his xERA is 6.09.
Four of the Blue Jays highest rated hitters are left handed, and left handed bats have been giving Brown nothing but trouble. Over his last 90 left handed hitters faced, they have posted a .377 xBA, .881 xSLG, and .385 xwOBA.
Toronto has been playing excellent baseball over the last three months, and this feels like a perfect spot for them to come out swinging against a struggling right hander.
