One of the scrappier teams in baseball, the Royals have a style I love. They do not walk, they do not strike out, and they make a ton of contact. I am all over their first five team total this evening. The over 2.54 runs is juiced at $1.20, but it is worth it.
They enter tonight with three elite-rated hitters, none above the strikeout rate and only three above the ground ball rate. At home, they thrive, averaging 2.51 runs in the first five innings.
Parker vs. KC
Tonight, they face left-hander Mitchell Parker. In the team's last 90 plate appearances against southpaws, four hitters own an average above .267, five have an OPS above .734, and five carry a wOBA above .317.
Parker holds the worst rating on Batters-Box's current season pitcher board. He has poor marks in matchup ISO, hard contact, strikeout percentage, and ground ball rate, allowing 37% hard contact overall.
In ten road starts this season, Parker has posted a 6.10 ERA, allowing 5.5 hits and 3.5 runs per outing. Over his last seven road starts, that number rises to a 6.56 ERA, a 7.44 xERA, and 51% hard contact allowed. Opposing hitters in that span have a .342 xBA, .602 xSLG, and .427 xwOBA.
Left-handed bats have been punishing him on the road, hitting .341 with a .442 OBP and .591 SLG. Vinnie Pasquantino or another Royals lefty will be key to getting on top of Parker this evening and helping to cash this play.
This feels like a great spot to back a team hungry for another playoff berth against an opponent clearly mailing it in.
Best Bet: Royals F5 Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (-120) odds via BetOnline
