New York Mets vs Miami Marlins MLB Betting Preview and Best Bets (August 4): Marlins Look to Pile More Misery on Middling Mets
Despite holding the worst record of any of MLB’s division leaders, the New York Mets are still holding on to first place in the NL East. MLB betting odds have favored the Mets almost all season long, but how much longer will that last?
They have been daring their division rivals to catch them, and it now looks like that challenge is being taken up by two contenders. After losing last night to the Miami Marlins, the Mets are only 1.5 games ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies and 2.5 games ahead of the Atlanta Braves, both of whom won yesterday.
The Mets will be hoping that today’s starter, Carlos Carrasco, can be a part of how they win the division. He is just getting into the season after a delayed start. The Marlins are going to be a thorn in the side of all the contenders down the stretch. They pitch so well that they cannot be counted out of any game. Their offense has not been productive enough to be a threat in the NL East, but they have taken the first two games of this series.
MLB Betting Matchup: New York Mets (55-51) vs. Miami Marlins (46-61), Bally Sports Florida, 7:10 PM ET
- New York Mets: Carlos Carrasco (0-0, 2.25 ERA)
- Miami Marlins: Zach Thompson (2-4, 2.33 ERA)
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins MLB Betting Odds
- Moneyline: New York -155, Miami +130
- Total: OVER 7.5 (-115), UNDER 7.5 (-105)
- Run Line: New York -1.5 (+104), Miami +1.5 (-125)
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins MLB Betting Consensus
- Moneyline: New York 50%, Miami 50%
- Total: Over 75%, Under 25%
- Run Line: New York 0%, Miami 100%
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Betting Outlook
Do the Mets Have More Than Mediocrity In Them?
It is hard to win when your best pitcher and position player are hurt. The Mets made moves at the deadline to improve the team getting LHP Rich Hill from the Rays and SS Javy Baez from the Cubs. Baez hit a homer in his first game with the Mets, but they are just 1-3 with him in the lineup.
When the Mets were healthier and had Jacob deGrom at the top of the rotation, they had the best pitching in baseball. Now they are just eighth in team ERA. That is more than good enough to win a division, but they need more from the bats. The two-time NL Cy Young winner is now likely out until September, at the earliest. When he gets back there is only so much he can do. The Mets need to start playing better now for his return to matter.
Marlins Enjoying Playing Spoiler
The Marlins made moves too, but it was mostly dealing what few bats they had, and stockpiling arms and prospects for the future. Outfielders Starling Marte and Adam Duvall were their best bats, and a team that was already second to last in scoring is going to struggle even more to do so.
However, the Marlins still have one of the best rotations in the game, and that gives them a chance in nearly every game. They have a couple of names you know in Sandy Alcantara and Trevor Rogers, but guys like rookie Zach Thompson have been adapting quickly as well. They did trade their closer, but that is no reason not to consider Miami in some spots down the stretch.
Carlos Carrasco Home vs Away
- Home: 0-0, 2.25 ERA, 4 IP, 4 Ks, 1 BB
- Away: First road start of the season
Zach Thompson Home vs Away
- Home: 2-2, 2.08 ERA, 21.2 IP, 25 Ks, 7 BBs
- Away: 0-2, 2.45 ERA, 17 IP, 16 Ks, 7 BBs
Experience versus inexperience in this one. Carlos Carrasco has been very successful in his career and looked pretty good in his 2021 debut for the Mets. It is still hard to know just how much we can get from him in this spot though. Thompson has shown great consistency as a rookie, never giving up more than three earned runs in a start. The Mets have never faced him either. When a pitcher is good, that is definitely an advantage.
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins August 3 Best Bet
Miami Marlins ML
It is hard to ignore the Marlins in this spot. They have beaten the Mets twice already in this series, both times by a run, and I like Thompson facing that Mets lineup for the first time. I like Carrasco a lot, but until we see him go at least six innings in a game it is hard to back him. The Marlins at home at a plus value are worth the investment.
MLB Betting Matchups: Wednesday, August 4
MLB Betting Matchup: Minnesota Twins vs Cincinnati Reds, Bally Sports Ohio, 12:35 PM ET
- Minnesota Twins: Charlie Barnes (0-1, 1.93 ERA)
- Cincinnati Reds: Luis Castillo (5-10, 4.22 ERA)
MLB Betting Matchup: Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays, Bally Sports Sun, 1:10, PM ET
- Seattle Mariners: Logan Gilbert (5-2, 4.04 ERA)
- Tampa Bay Rays: Josh Fleming (8-5, 4.15 ERA)
Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays August 4 MLB Betting Matchup: Picks, Odds, Stats and More
MLB Betting Matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers, MLB Network, 2:10 PM ET
- Pittsburgh Pirates: Steven Brault (first appearance of the season)
- Milwaukee Brewers: Freddy Peralta (8-3, 2.17 ERA)
MLB Betting Matchup: San Diego Padres vs Oakland A’s, MLB Network, 3:37 PM ET
- San Diego Padres: Joe Musgrove (7-7, 2.94 ERA)
- Oakland A’s: Frankie Montas (9-8, 4.08 ERA)
MLB Betting Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 7:05 PM ET
- Philadelphia Phillies: Chase Anderson (2-4, 6.75 ERA
- Washington Nationals: Paulo Espino (3-2, 3.08 ERA)
MLB Betting Matchup: Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees, YES, 7:05 PM ET
- Baltimore Orioles: Matt Harvey (6-10, 6.20 ERA)
- New York Yankees: Jameson Taillon (7-4, 4.11 ERA)
MLB Betting Matchup: Cleveland Indians vs Toronto Blue Jays, Sportsnet, 7:07 PM ET
- Cleveland Indians: JC Mejia (1-6, 7.60 ERA)
- Toronto Blue Jays: Steven Matz (8-6, 4.58 ERA)
MLB Betting Matchup: Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers, Bally Sports Detroit, 7:10 PM ET
- Boston Red Sox: Eduardo Rodriguez (7-6, 5.60 ERA)
- Detroit Tigers: Casey Mize (6-5, 3.41 ERA)
MLB Betting Matchup: Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers, Bally Sports Southwest, 8:05 PM ET
- Los Angeles Angels: Shohei Ohtani (5-1, 3.04)
- Texas Rangers: Kolby Allard (2-9, 5.23 ERA)
MLB Betting Matchup: Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox, NBC Sports Chicago, 8:10 PM ET
- Kansas City Royals: Carlos Hernandez (2-1, 4.98 ERA)
- Chicago White Sox: Lucas Giolito (8-7, 3.67 ERA)
MLB Betting Matchup: Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals, Bally Sports Midwest, 8:10 PM ET
- Atlanta Braves: Drew Smyly (7-3, 4.40 ERA)
- St Louis Cardinals: JA Happ (5-6, 6.77 ERA)
MLB Betting Matchup: Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies, ATT Sportsnet Rocky Mountain, 8:40 PM ET
- Chicago Cubs: Alec Mills (4-4, 4.55 ERA)
- Colorado Rockies: Jon Gray (7-6, 3.62 ERA)
MLB Betting Matchup: Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Dodgers, Sportsnet LA, 9:40 PM ET
- Houston Astros: Jake Odorizzi (4-5, 4.30 ERA)
- Los Angeles Dodgers: Max Scherzer (8-4, 2.76 ERA)
MLB Betting Matchup: San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks, Bally Sports Arizona, 9:40 PM ET
- San Francisco Giants: Kevin Gausman
- Arizona Diamondbacks: Zac Gallen
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