New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Props July 19, 2026
Written by: TonesTakes
Published: Sun Jul 19, 2026, 10:29 am ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
mlb
Tough 0-3 night last night as the Nationals got blown out by the Athletics. That brings YTD record to 13-11 +3.50. Looking for a bounce back day, let's take a look at my New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Analysis.
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Preview
The New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies conclude their 3 game series today, at Citizens Bank Park, in Philadelphia. New York took Game 1 of the series by a 4-1 count on Thursday night, top open the 2nd half of the season. Philadelphia responded with a 6-1 win yesterday behind Jesus Luzardo, who pitched 5 innings, only allowing 1 run on 2 hits. The Mets will send Nolan McLean to the mound for the finale, while the Phillies will counter with what will most likely a bullpen game, led by Alan Rangel. Let's take a deeper look at this divisional battle…
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Pitching Matchup
- New York Mets (41-58) RHP Nolan McLean (6-8, 3.52 ERA/1.12 WHIP)
- Philadelphia Phillies (55-44) RHP Alan Rangel (0-2,4.19 ERA/1.40 WHIP)
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of our friends at Lucky Rebel
Moneyline
- New York Mets -131
- Philadelphia Phillies +109
Total
- Over 8.5 (-119)
- Under 8.5 (-101)
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Predictions and Best Bets
Game Pick: New York Mets Team Total Over 4.5 -108 Lucky Rebel
As mentioned above, the Philadelphia Phillies will turn to Right Hander Alan Rangel in the rubber match of this 3 game divisional series. Rangel has appeared in 5 games this season with 2 of those appearance being starts. He is typically involved in bullpen games and that is what we should expect his afternoon as the Phillies continue to try to find an important 5 starter in this front loaded pitching rotation. Rangel faced this Mets team on June 27th as he entered the game in the 2nd inning and he went on to allow 4 earned runs across 4 innings pitched in what was his worst appearance of the season thus far.
Rangel is part of a Philadelphia bullpen that is dealing with injuries and has gotten progressive worse as the season has gone on. The Phils have a bullpen ERA of 4.38, which is 10 worse in Major League Baseball. Over the past 30 days their pen owns a ERA of 4.52 over 219 innings. Star closer Jhoan Duran has had fantastic year but his pen teammates have been very inconsistent. While New York's offense has struggled to get going this season, I think they can generate some runs today against a very volatile Philadelphia bullpen.
Player Prop: Nolan McClean Over 6.5 Strikeouts +120 Lucky Rebel
Aside from a couple blow up starts, the New York Mets Ace has had a very nice season, especially on the road where McLean owns a 2.55 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP, averaging just over a strikeout an inning.
McLean has struck out at least 7 hitters in 4 of his last 5 starts overall and gets a juicy matchup this afternoon. The Phillies have a strikeout rate of 23.5 this season, which is 7th worst in the majors. At home their strikeout rate is 22.6, which is also 7th worst. Philadelphia also owns the 8th highest strikeout rate to Right Handed Pitchers this season.
McLean owns a strikeout rate of 27.9, which is in the 83rd percentile among major league pitchers. He has an assortment of pitches that he can throw and should be able to use his repertoire to keep these Philadelphia hitters off balance and generate enough swing and misses to hit this mark.
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