MLB Plays for Tuesday, April 21: Will the Mets End the Streak?

Danny Burke

Written by: Danny Burke

Last Update: Tue Apr 21, 2026, 1:08 pm ET

Read Time: 4 minutes

Tap into Tuesday's MLB slate, as our analyst shares his MLB plays, analysis and predictions for today's slate of action on the diamond.

mlb

Minnesota Twins logo
FINAL
New York Mets logo

Minnesota Twins

5

New York Mets

3
See Picks & Statistics For The Game

Happy Tuesday, everyone! We split our bets last night after what looked like it could've been another 2-0 night early on, but we fell short and will look to bounce back tonight.

So, without further ado, let's dive into my MLB plays for Tuesday, April 21.

MLB Plays for Tuesday, April 21

Juan Soto Smiling on the Mets - Braves Mets props

Minnesota Twins vs New York Mets

New York has now dropped 11 consecutive games, which is atrocious in its own right, but even more so for a team like the Mets, who were pegged to be one of Major League Baseball's best.

Now, of course, they can turn it around and get back into a rhythm, and in fact, that's what I'm banking on happening tonight. I'm going to be betting the Mets on the run line this evening as they take on right-hander Simeon Woods-Richardson and the Minnesota Twins.

The Twins are on their way to a disgusting losing skid as well, having dropped four in a row, and now they'll send an unstable arm in Woods-Richardson to the mound.

Through four starts and 20.2 innings, he owns a 6.10 ERA and a 5.60 FIP. Additionally, his HR/FB rate sits at 13%, his left-on-base percentage is 66%, and he has a strikeout-to-walk rate of just 4%, while posting a 43% hard-hit rate and a 10% barrel rate.

The list goes on with the poor metrics, but let's just say if there's a pitcher the Mets need to face to snap this skid, there aren't many better options than Woods-Richardson.

Meanwhile, the Mets will turn to a more trustworthy righty in Nolan McLean to hold things down.

McLean carries a 2.28 ERA and a 2.46 FIP. His K-BB rate sits at 22.5%, and he's limiting hard contact with a 31% hard-hit rate and a sub-6% barrel rate.

Let's look for the Mets to snap the losing streak in a big way and take advantage of the plus-money run line price.

Play: Mets Run Line -1.5 (+140)

Lucky Rebel Sportsbook logo 4.9/5 Review Rating
Bonus & Benefits
Up to $1,250 + 50 Free Slots Spins
See our review »
$1,250 Welcome Bonus
Bet Live on Your Favorite Sports
Earn More with Rebel Rewards!

Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays

A compelling pitching matchup takes place in Florida on Tuesday night, as Chase Burns and the Cincinnati Reds look to claim another win against Steven Matz and the Tampa Bay Rays.

Burns has been solid for Cincinnati through four starts, posting a 2.42 ERA and a 3.84 xFIP. He's done a good job forcing grounders at a 44% rate, limiting quality contact with a .222 BABIP, and leaving runners on base 91% of the time.

He's in a strong spot to produce another quality outing, as the Rays rank 22nd in ISO (.129), 20th in wRC+ (95), and 19th in OPS (.686) versus righties since the beginning of April.

Conversely, the Reds lineup should have much more confidence in tonight's matchup. Matz is a lefty, and since April 1, Cincy ranks third in ISO (.223) against southpaws. They do rank 18th in OPS and 20th in wRC+, but the power upside warrants some optimism.

Matz has also shown some vulnerability to quality contact, posting a 42% hard-hit rate and a barrel rate above 10%. For the most part, his numbers aren't too egregious, but he does present more red flags than Burns.

Matz is leaving runners on base at just a 69% clip and generating grounders at a rate under 30%, while his expected ERA sits at 4.42 compared to a 3.80 ERA.

The Reds came alive in the series opener with a 6-1 win, and I'm hoping they can put together another strong outing on Tuesday night.

Play: Reds Moneyline (-102)

MLB Plays:

MLB Record: 31-20-1 (+10.19 units)

Still Didn't Get Your Fix?

Follow me on X @dannyburke5 for all my picks, analysis and plenty more. Also be sure to follow Betting News on 'X' and Twitch to catch us on stream! Betting News is also on TikTok! Follow us for more picks and news every day and check out our Free Expert Picks for every major sports league.

Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly

Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER

Check Out All of Our Betting Resources at Betting News

See our Matchup - Free Picks & Stats
Danny Burke
Danny Burke

Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Betting News makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.