MLB Picks and Predictions for July 27, 2026
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Mon Jul 27, 2026, 10:20 am ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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The last week of July is finally here, and as we move inches closer to football season, we still embrace the daily grind of betting some baseball. Will that in mind, let's check out some of our favorite MLB Picks on today's slate, as our experts found a couple spots worth firing on. See if you will tail or fade their picks below.
- MLB YTD
- 62-46-1 (57.4%)
- +14.64u
- Average Odds -101
Check out the best odds on the market at our top online sportsbooks.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Picks
Chase Burns leads the Reds today at home as they take on the Cleveland Guardians
Guardians vs. Reds Pitching Matchup
- Cleveland Guardians: RHP Slade Cecconi (4-7, 4.60 ERA, 1.45 WHIP)
- Cincinnati Reds: RHP Chase Burns (12-1, 2.42 ERA, 1.11 WHIP)
Best Bet: Reds -1.5 (+130) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Back the Reds with me tonight as we put our trust in Chase Burns, who has been a stud this season. The Reds are down 2-1 in the regular season series against the Guardians, but tonight begins their final series at Great American Ball Park. Cleveland now sits 2.5 games out of first place in the AL Central after dropping five in a row. The Reds are in last place of the NL Central, but they have won four out of their last five and are 6-3 since coming back from break. This is perfect spot for them to keep it going.
For starters, the Reds have won all six games since the break by at least two runs. Therefore it makes more sense (in my eyes) to back them on the run line for plus money. Burns is tied for second in the MLB in wins, ranking fourth in ERA and top 20 in WHIP and strikeouts. Plus, his splits get slightly better at home.
Slade Cecconi is riding a 7.43 ERA through three starts in July, giving up three, three and five earned runs during that stretch. Although Cincy's bats aren't anything to write home about, their pitcher will set them up for success to win this contest by two.
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals MLB Picks
Nico Hoerner hits .247 for the Cubs this season with 102 hits and 44 RBIs
Cubs vs. Cardinals Pitching Matchup
- Chicago Cubs: LHP David Peterson (5-7, 5.97 ERA, 1.56 WHIP)
- St. Louis Cardinals: LHP Matthew Liberatore (5-7, 5.18 ERA, 1.52 WHIP)
Best Bet: Cubs ML (-121) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
The Cubs and Cardinals face off once again, as the two NL Central rivals meet at Busch Stadium. St. Louis leads the regular season series 4-2 overall, but they are underdogs at home tonight, as two lefties take the mound. David Peterson has seen the Cardinals twice this year, once as a Met, once as a Cub. Both times, he was blown up. However, his splits improve on the road, and he's allowed just one earned run on five hits in 11.2 innings in his last two starts combined.
Liberatore has seen the Cubs twice, pitching well at home, but not so great on the road. I am leaning into the fact that the Cubs are favored here, despite Peterson's lack of success against St. Louis. The Cubs are hitting .247 as a team this year, with that jumping up to .263 against left handed pitchers. Plus, since the All Star Break, they are hitting .275 through nine games.
Finally, our new BN Prediction Engine has the Cubs priced at around -141 to win this game, therefore we are getting at least 20 cents of value on this play.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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