MLB Picks and Predictions for July 21, 2026: We Found a Player Prop!
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Tue Jul 21, 2026, 3:05 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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We went 1-1 on yesterday's MLB picks to lose a little juice, but we are still betting with plenty of house money. Let's roll some of that onto today's picks and see if we can make up for yesterday by going 2-0! I don't dabble in player props too often, but when I do, I turn towards the mound, as we back a pitcher to sit down some batters tonight. Keep reading for the rest of our MLB picks below, both at plus money!
- MLB YTD
- 57-42-1 (57%)
- +14.14u
- Average Odds +100
Check out the best odds on the market at our top online sportsbooks.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays MLB Picks
Kevin Gausman has had 25 strikeouts in his last three starts. Will he do the same against the Rays?
Rays vs. Blue Jays Pitching Matchup
- Tampa Bay Rays: RHP Drew Rasmussen (7-5, 3.26 ERA, 0.95 WHIP)
- Toronto Blue Jays: RHP Kevin Gausman (4-8, 4.33 ERA, 1.22 WHIP)
Best Bet: Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+108) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Kevin Gausman has been one of my favorite pitchers to back over the years, and tonight I'll go right back to him. Now, statistically speaking, he is having his worst season as a Blue Jay. But the guy is still a strikeout machine, and we are getting him at discount tonight. Let's talk numbers.
His K/Inning average climbs from 1.03 to 1.09 at home this year. His ERA and WHIP both drop, confirming that he is more comfortable in the Rogers Centre. He's seen the Rays twice this year, going for five strikeouts in 4.2 innings at home, and three in six innings on the road back in May. In his last seven starts against Tampa Bay, Gausman has cleared this number in 5/7 outings, posting five Ks once, averaging 1.08 K/Inning.
As for his recent form, Gausman has eight, eight, and seven strikeouts in his last three starts, averaging 1.34 K/Inning. Even against the Rays, I'll take a stab at six Ks for plus money.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners MLB Picks
Chase Burns has taken the MLB by storm this year with 10 straight wins and a top five ERA
Reds vs. Mariners Pitching Matchup
- Cincinnati Reds: RHP Chase Burns (11-1, 2.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP)
- Seattle Mariners: RHP Luis Castillo (3-8, 4.93 ERA, 1.37 WHIP)
Best Bet: Reds ML (+102) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
The Cincinnati Reds just got shutout by the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park last night, losing 8-0. I've got to think their bats will respond tonight as their stud, Chase Burns, takes the mound. Burns is tied for fourth in the MLB with 11 wins on the year, and also ranks top five in ERA and top 11 in WHIP. His home and away splits are nothing to worry about in this spot, and the guy hasn't been responsible for a loss since April 10. He started the year 1-1, now he is 11-1.
Overall, the Reds are 14-4 when this guy pitches, having won six straight as well. Even when he has an off night, his offense backs him up and provides enough run support. I certainly trust them to do so against Luis Castillo, whose splits get worse in Seattle.
He has allowed six earned runs in just two starts in July, and the Mariners have lost two straight and five of their last six since June when he starts. Give me the Reds offense to bounce back with their Ace on the mound, making them a live underdog on the diamond.
This is an absolute steal according to our BN Prediction Engine, as they have the Reds ML fair value priced at -126. We are getting them for plus money. The wrong team is favored tonight.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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