MLB Picks for Friday, April 10: Backing the Braves
Written by: Danny Burke
Last Update: Fri Apr 10, 2026, 12:16 pm ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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Well, folks – it appears that you have to either avoid, or just automatically fade, any baseball bets I put out on Thursdays. Something about that day just doesn't bode well for us.
The good news is we've got a full Friday slate and I'm eager to bounce back after a pair of losses yesterday. So let's respond accordingly with some of my favorite MLB picks for Friday, April 10.
MLB Picks for Friday, April 10
Cleveland Guardians vs Atlanta Braves
Down in Atlanta, the Braves open a three-game series against the Cleveland Guardians.
Cleveland just took two of three at home against Kansas City, while Atlanta matched that result on the West Coast against the Angels.
The Braves are coming at a noticeable discount in this spot, and I'm looking to capitalize.
Bryce Elder gets the nod, and the right-hander couldn't have asked for a better start to the season. Through two outings, he's tossed 13 scoreless innings, backed by a 1.61 FIP and a 23.4% strikeout-to-walk rate. There's very little to pick apart in his profile.
He draws a Guardians lineup that's produced against right-handed pitching, but this is a tougher assignment — one that could slow them down.
On the other side, Slade Cecconi takes the mound. I've never been particularly high on the 26-year-old, and nothing I've seen recently changes that.
Through two starts, he owns a 5.23 ERA, a 4.31 FIP and a barrel rate north of 11%.
To be fair, his results have been split. He was tagged in Seattle for six earned runs across 4.1 innings, then responded with six scoreless innings against the Cubs, surrendering just one hit.
Even with that bounce-back, the edge still tilts toward Atlanta. The Braves rank third in ISO (.173), fifth in OPS (.743) and eighth in wRC+ (110) against righties.
At anything better than -140, Atlanta is a strong look, and I wouldn't mind adding a sprinkle on the run line as well.
Pick: Braves Moneyline (-135)
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays
After winning seven of their first eight games, the New York Yankees have now dropped three of four. Meanwhile, the Rays lost two of three to the Chicago Cubs and will be looking to get back in the win column as well.
Will Steven Matz be the one to get them there?
The southpaw has allowed five earned runs on eight hits, with 10 strikeouts to three walks across 11 innings this season. His 4.09 ERA doesn't jump off the page, but a 3.47 xERA and 3.33 FIP suggest he's been more effective than it indicates.
That lines up well against a Yankees lineup that's been dreadful against left-handed pitching, ranking dead last in OPS (.422) and 29th in wRC+ (31).
On the other side, Tampa Bay's offense has been far more reliable, ranking sixth in wRC+ (115) and ninth in OPS (.726) against righties.
They'll face Luis Gil, who's making his season debut. He's coming off a rough 2025 campaign, both statistically and from a health standpoint, missing the first four months of the year.
Gil made 11 starts and posted a 3.32 ERA, which looks solid on the surface, but his underlying numbers tell a different story – a 4.94 xERA and a 5.65 xFIP. His strikeout-to-walk rate was also a concern at just 3.3%, paired with a 1.40 WHIP.
Pick: Rays Moneyline (+110)
Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners
One team's skid is coming to an end tonight, as the Seattle Mariners, losers of five straight, host the Houston Astros, who have dropped four in a row.
Emerson Hancock gets the ball for Seattle, and the right-hander makes a strong case to be the one who snaps that streak.
Through two starts, he's logged 12.2 innings, allowing just six hits and one earned run. In his first outing, he carried a no-hitter through six innings before being pulled. He also owns a 30.2% strikeout-to-walk rate, a 0.55 WHIP and a 26% hard-hit rate.
If there's a guy to end the Mariners slide, it's most definitely Hancock.
The Astros hope Tatsuya Imai can be the guy to do it for them, but I'm not buying it. He was roughed up in his first outing, going just 2.2 innings against the Angels, allowing four in every category: hits, runs, walks and strikeouts. He bounced back in his next start in Sacramento against the Athletics, going 5.2 innings while allowing just three hits and no runs, with nine strikeouts and only three walks.
Still, he carries a .353 BABIP and a 1.56 WHIP. Some of the underlying metrics are more promising, but there's still a slight edge for the Mariners in this spot. Imai will be a fun arm to track this season, and potentially a profitable one long term, I just don't expect that to show tonight.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline (-132)
MLB Picks:
MLB Record: 19-13-1 (+5.82 units)
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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