MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, April 16: Counting on Cleveland

Danny Burke

Written by: Danny Burke

Published: Thu Apr 16, 2026, 9:52 am ET

Read Time: 4 minutes

Get today’s expert MLB plays for April 27. We break down the best bets and value on the board.

mlb

Tampa Bay Rays logo
FINAL
Chicago White Sox logo

Tampa Bay Rays

5

Chicago White Sox

3
See Picks & Statistics For The Game

What's going on, everyone? We're coming off a pair of winners last night and looking to keep things rolling into Thursday.

Let's dive into a couple of plays that stand out on today's slate with my MLB picks and predictions for April 16.

MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, April 16

Tampa Bay rays

Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox

On the southside of Chicago, a rubber match takes place when the Rays and White Sox square off for the third straight day.

Left-hander Steven Matz looks to be the guy to get the job done for the visitors. Through three starts and 16 innings, Matz has a 3.94 ERA and a 2.97 FIP. He's limited the long ball, posting a 5.3% HR/FB rate, and quality hits in general with a BABIP of .231.

The White Sox sit 19th in OPS (.655) and 16th in wRC+ (87) against southpaws this season, and may struggle against a quality arm in Matz this afternoon.

On the South Side of Chicago, a rubber match takes place as the Rays and White Sox square off for the third straight day.

Left-hander Steven Matz looks like the arm to get the job done for the visitors. Through three starts and 16 innings, Matz owns a 3.94 ERA alongside a much stronger 2.97 FIP. He's done a solid job limiting damage, posting a 5.3% HR/FB rate and a .231 BABIP.

That sets up well against a White Sox lineup that ranks 19th in OPS (.655) and 16th in wRC+ (87) against southpaws this season.

Meanwhile, Chicago may opt for a bullpen approach, with Jordan Leasure getting the nod for his first start of the year. He's made eight appearances in total, posting a 4.00 ERA alongside a 4.98 xERA and 5.05 FIP. While those numbers aren't overly alarming, they're not necessarily convincing – particularly when factoring in his 22% barrel rate.

That's not ideal against a Rays lineup that ranks seventh in wRC+ (115) and ninth in OPS (.751) versus right-handed pitching.

I'm expecting the better team, backed by the more reliable arm, to take care of business in this one.

Pick: Rays Moneyline (-124)

Lucky Rebel Sportsbook logo 4.9/5 Review Rating
Bonus & Benefits
Up to $1,250 + 50 Free Slots Spins
See our review »
$1,250 Welcome Bonus
Bet Live on Your Favorite Sports
Earn More with Rebel Rewards!
Play Now & Claim Bonus »

Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians

Get your week started off with some action on the diamond. Our analyst breaks down his top MLB picks and predictions for Monday, April 13.

A new series gets underway in Cleveland, where both the Guardians and Orioles are looking to bounce back after dropping two games in their previous sets.

The 25-year-old left-hander Parker Messick will try to be the spark for Cleveland, and early on, he's shown he's more than capable.

Through three starts, Messick owns a 0.51 ERA. While some regression is expected, his underlying numbers still support the success, with a 2.92 xERA and 2.93 FIP. He's also limited damage well, posting a 6.7% HR/FB rate and a .227 BABIP.

There haven't been many red flags in his repertoire so far, and I'm expecting that to continue against Baltimore.

On the other side, Shane Baz doesn't inspire nearly the same level of confidence. His ERA and xFIP both sit at 4.50, and he's been hurt by a .380 BABIP.

Cleveland's offense hasn't been great against righties to start the year, but there are signs of life, ranking 13th in ISO (.158).

Facing a vulnerable arm like Baz presents a golden opportunity for the Guardians' bats to show up, and I'm willing to invest in that notion.

Pick: Guardians Moneyline (-125)

MLB Picks: 

MLB Record: 28-19-1 (+8.52 units)

Still Didn't Get Your Fix?

Follow me on X @dannyburke5 for all my picks, analysis and plenty more. Also be sure to follow Betting News on 'X' and Twitch to catch us on stream! Betting News is also on TikTok! Follow us for more picks and news every day and check out our Free Expert Picks for every major sports league.

Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly

Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER

Check Out All of Our Betting Resources at Betting News

See our Matchup - Free Picks & Stats
Danny Burke
Danny Burke

Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Betting News makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.