MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, April 13: Braves’ Bats are Booming
Written by: Danny Burke
Last Update: Mon Apr 13, 2026, 12:55 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Well, Sunday was a frustrating one, as multiple teams we backed blew leads and handed us a brutal 1-3 finish. The good news is we've got a strong Monday slate to bounce back and get back into the win column.
Let's dive into my top MLB picks and predictions for Monday, April 13.
MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, April 13
Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves
An NL East division series battle begins in Atlanta tonight, when Grant Holmes and the Braves host Eury Perez and the Miami Marlins.
The Braves' bats are picking up as of late, as they've won four of their past five games, while the Marlins' hitters have cooled off a bit, dropping three straight.
Despite that, Miami may be able to pick up some steam offensively this evening.
Holmes' 2.55 ERA is overshadowed by his 4.62 xFIP and 4.69 Skill-Interactive ERA (SIERA). I'm not necessarily expecting him to get obliterated, but I do think the Marlins can cause a bit of damage.
Meanwhile, Perez could struggle a bit as well. His ERA sits at 5.06 with a 6.20 FIP, and he's also carrying a 19% HR/FB rate, 16.7% barrel rate and 43% hard-hit rate.
Atlanta has been crushing righties this season, ranking second in ISO (.188) and third in both wRC+ (126) and OPS (.801).
If I had more conviction in Holmes, I'd most likely be on the Braves' side, but instead, I'm going to back this total going over eight runs.
Pick: Total Over 8 (-116)
Cleveland Guardians vs St. Louis Cardinals
After both teams dropped two of their last three games in their respective series, the Guardians and Cardinals are each looking to start this one on the right foot.
St. Louis took the opener against Boston before dropping the final two, while Cleveland had a rollercoaster series in Atlanta – losing 11-5, bouncing back with a 6-0 win, then getting crushed 13-1 in the rubber match.
The Cardinals will turn to southpaw Matthew Liberatore to stop the bleeding, and while his ERA suggests he's capable of doing so, his alternative numbers suggest otherwise.
Liberatore owns a 3.38 ERA through three starts and 16 innings, but a 5.54 xERA and 6.08 FIP suggest that number won't hold. He's also carrying a 17% HR/FB rate, a 1.50 WHIP, just a 7% strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 4.80 SIERA.
That could be a bad blend against a Guardians offense that's fared well versus lefties this season. Cleveland ranks eighth in ISO (.132), 12th in wRC+ (98) and 13th in OPS (.673).
On the other side, Gavin Williams will be starting for the Guardians, and his numbers offer a bit more confidence.
Through three starts and 17.2 innings of work, Williams has a 2.04 ERA, a 3.61 xERA and a 3.50 xFIP. He too has a high HR/FB rate of 18%, but offsets that with an impressive 93% left-on-base rate and a .115 batting average on balls in play (BABIP).
He's matched up against a Cardinals lineup that's 23rd in ISO (.132), 24th in wRC+ (89) and 25th in OPS (.653) versus righties so far this season.
Both the hitting and pitching advantages reside with the visitors and that's the side I'll be backing.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline (-115)
Best Bets:
MLB Record: 23-18-1 (+4.17 units)
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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