MLB Expert Picks for Thursday, August 20

It's a get away Thursday in the MLB. 6 games today in the afternoon with some intriguing matchups. However, we have three games tonight and two of those games are going to be the ones that we will be diving into. Can the Orioles avoid the sweep and can Texas tie Minnesota for the final Wild Card spot in the American League?

Let's dive into my MLB best bets for Thursday, August 20th.

 

MLB Best Bets for Thursday, August 20

• Yankees – Orioles Under 7.5 (-108 at Lucky Rebel)
• Nationals ML (+140 at Lucky Rebel)

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles

The Yankees-Orioles series so far has kind of been synonymous to how the seasons have been going for both teams. After the Orioles took 3 games in Tampa against the team with the best home record in baseball they have given all of that back with three losses in their last 3 games. Meanwhile, the Yankees continue to win low scoring games behind timely hitting and fantastic pitching. Tonight, we get another good pitching matchup between Gerrit Cole and Kyle Bradish.

Since returning from the IL in late May, Gerrit Cole has been good for the Yankees. 6-6 record with a 3.22 ERA and 92 strikeouts. He has been really good here in the month of August with a 1.93 ERA in 18.2 innings pitched. The current Orioles roster is 9-41 in their career against Cole with a .220 batting average. Leody Taveras has the best numbers lifetime going 4-11 against Cole (.364 batting average).

Kyle Bradish on the other side has been solid for the Orioles as well. 7-11 record with a 3.65 ERA and 124 strikeouts. He has faced the Yankees twice this season and had complete opposite results. He faced them in the Bronx in early May and gave up 5 earned runs on 6 hits in 4 innings pitched. Two weeks later he faced the Yankees at home in Baltimore and gave up no runs on one hit in 6 innings pitched. Which Bradish do we get tonight?

The under has been so profitable in Yankees games with the the injuries to the lineup and how great the pitching is and with Bradish on the other side I wouldn't expect anything different. I'll take under 7.5 runs and would actually lean with the Orioles to avoid the sweep, but I'm staying away. Last night Pete Alonso looked to hit a game tying home run and it was called a foul ball. The Yankees went on to win the game and you wonder if going into today's game the O's are still harping on that. No play on the side, but like the under.

Bet: Yankees-Orioles Under 7.5 (-108)

Washington Nationals vs Texas Rangers

This series so far has been an interesting one. Rangers won on Tuesday 5-0 and the Nats last night won 6-0. What will tonight's rubber match give? Andrew Alvarez will get the ball for the Nats and Jacob DeGrom takes the bump for the Rangers. Texas is a solid favorite as you would expect with DeGrom pitching tonight at home, but is the number potentially to high?

After six straight starts in June going 6 innings or more the Rangers have been cautious with DeGrom. Since his start on June 30th where he threw 7 innings against the Guardians, DeGrom has made six starts and yet to surpass 5 innings. The pitch count is still pretty good, throwing 90 + pitches in 6 of those starts, but the effectiveness has gone done. Tonight, he faces one of the best offenses in baseball which should drive that pitch count up again and I don't see DeGrom getting past 5+ innings yet again. So far in August, DeGrom's ERA is 6.97.

Andrew Alvarez on the other side for the Nats has actually been really solid here as of late. Four straight games of two earned runs or fewer. That's always the key for the Nats in any game. You know the offense more often that not is going to be there, but can you get the pitching to go with it.

I think the Rangers are too big a favorite tonight and the value we are getting on Washington is to good to pass up. If DeGrom doesn't go deep into the game which has been the case here of late than advantage Nationals. Washington have been good to us this year and we are going to be continue to bet them.

Bet: Nationals ML (+140)

 

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