MLB Expert Picks for Friday, August 21 | Friday Dingers
Written by: Varun Sharma
Published: Fri Aug 21, 2026, 4:55 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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With August coming to an end, it feels like we've only got so many big home run days left in the MLB. With that being said, let's take advantage and find some winners tonight.
I've got two big time hitters I'm locked in on, let's jump straight into it.
The cheat sheet makes it a lot easier when I run through the stats I'm looking at and as always, hit me up on X if you've got more questions.
Dinger Cheat Sheet
- BA — Batting Average
- oBA — Opponent Batting Average
- xBA — Expected BA
- SLG — Slugging Percentage
- ISO — Isolated Power
- wOBA — Weighted On-Base Average
- HH% — Hard Hit Rate
- BRL% — Barrel Rate
- HR/9 — Home Runs per 9 innings
- XBH — Extra Base Hit
- RBI — Runs Batted In
Dinger Counter: 17-32; +19.65 units
Today's Dingers
Julio Rodriguez Home Run (+420) | Lucky Rebel
Julio Rodriguez is due.
He's been stuck on 19 home runs forever, he's batting .254 with a .418 SLG, a 13% BRL and 43% HH. Somehow, despite playing in very pitcher-friendly ballpark; Rodriguez hits most of his homers at home.
Rodriguez has hit 12 of his 19 home runs here in T-Mobile Park and conditions in Seattle today are friendlier than normal. With winds blowing out toward centre field at about 5-6 mph and a lefty on the bump for the Cubs, I love JRod tonight.
At home this year, Rodriguez is batting .281 with a .495 SLG, 13% BRL and 41% HH. Against lefties, his BRL jumps to 17% and his HH to 47%.
On the bump for the Cubs is Matthew Boyd. He's got a 4.14 ERA this year and he's given up 13 home runs; 12 to right handed bats. He's allowing a 14% BRL to righties and throws a majority fastball.
Rodriguez hasn't crushed the fastball like years passed but this entire Marlins team has struggled a little seeing the ball this year. This matchup feels perfect for Rodriguez to finally hit one deep.
In his last five games, JRod's got a 17% BRL, 44% HH 39% flyball rate and no home runs. He's due.
Randal Grichuck Home Run (+375) | Lucky Rebel
Randal Grichuck faces a lefty today and whenever that happens I like to bet his home run. Grichuck's batting .312 against left handed pitchers this year, he's got a .632 SLG, a 16% BRL and 50% HH. He's got 10 total home runs this year, 8 against lefties.
Grichuck's also got great history against Sean Manaea. He's batting .316 in 19 plate appearances and with 2 home runs and a 13% BRL.
Manaea leans heavily on his 4-seam fastball against righties and that's a pitch Grichuck's been smashing. Two of Manaea's favorite secondary pitches are the sinker/slider and Grichuck's been great against all fastballs this year.
Lastly, Grichuck's been great at home. He's got a .269 batting average with a 49% HH here in Chicago. He's hit 5 of his 10 home runs here and he's got a .548 SLG in front of the home crowd.
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