MLB Expert Picks for 8/18: Back These Three Home Teams
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Tue Aug 18, 2026, 1:10 pm ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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Tuesday's baseball slate is completely full, and it is jam packed. There's a good chance all 15 contests are in action simultaneously as first pitch in Baltimore is at 6:35 p.m. eastern, with the final game going off just two hours later in Denver. Get ready to channel flip tonight if you want all the action on the diamond. Despite a 2-2 day yesterday, we walked away with a little profit, so let's get right back into the slate and see what our MLB expert picks are for tonight!
- MLB YTD
- 83-62-1 (57.2%)
- +19.3u
- Average Odds: +100
Check out the best odds on the market at our top online sportsbooks.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays MLB Picks
Chandler Simpson is on an eight game hitting streak, with 16 total hits during that stretch
Blue Jays vs. Rays Pitching Matchup
- Toronto Blue Jays: RHP Jose Soriano (9-6, 3.16 ERA, 1.25 WHIP)
- Tampa Bay Rays: RHP Nick Martinez (12-3, 2.74 ERA, 1.09 WHIP)
Best Bet: Rays ML (-126) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
In this AL East Divisional battle tonight, take the hosts with me. Tampa Bay is on top of the division by six games over the New York Yankees, and the Blue Jays are at the bottom of the division. This isn't rocket science. We are simply backing the better team at home with the more skilled pitcher.
Nick Martinez has been one of the best in the MLB this entire season. He's got a top 15 ERA and WHIP, and you know this guy is good for SEVERAL innings. He just pitched a complete game to the Athletics, allowing eight hits and four runs in a 12-4 victory. His last outing at home didn't go so well, but it was against the White Sox. Against the lowly Blue Jays, I think this man will shove.
Jose Soriano has been fine since coming to Toronto, but I don't think he'll get the run support he might need tonight. The Rays hit .261 overall, .266 at home and .285 during the month of August, where they are 11-4, and 42-21 at home. This moneyline price is more than playable for me, and the BN Prediction Engine likes it as well, having the Rays fairly priced around -131.
Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals MLB Picks
Bobby Witt Jr. went yard last night for Kansas City. Can he help contribute to the Royals' team total tonight?
Athletics vs. Royals Pitching Matchup
- Athletics: RHP Jack Perkins (2-9, 7.27 ERA, 1.52 WHIP)
- Kansas City Royals: LHP Daniel Lynch IV (4-4, 2.88 ERA, 1.02 WHIP)
Best Bet: Royals Team Total Over 4.5 (-130) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Now, Lynch might not be starting for KC, but we are taking the Royals' pitching out of this equation anyways. Just take the bats to score off of Perkins. We paid the juice for the first five run line last night and it paid off, here we go again with the full game team total.
Perkins has an ERA north of 7.00 this year, and it's up to 11.38 in three starts in August. The man has allowed six, five, six, two, three, three, and seven earned runs in his last seven outings. Not gonna cut it, Jack. Plus, the Athletics have lost 10 consecutive games in which he's started. The poor guy doesn't have a win since the middle of April. He's only seen seven Royals hitters this year. Kansas City hits .243 overall, but explodes to .263 at home, winning three of their last four. Give me the Yals to score five tonight, regardless of if they win or lose.
Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers MLB Picks
Kyle Harrison is looking for his 10th win of the season. I think he gets it tonight at home.
Mariners vs. Brewers Pitching Matchup
- Seattle Mariners: RHP Bryce Miller (4-6, 3.39 ERA, 0.99 WHIP)
- Milwaukee Brewers: LHP Kyle Harrison (9-3, 2.99 ERA, 1.13 WHIP)
Best Bet: Brewers -1.5 (+130) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Full transparency, I was able to snag this for +149 earlier this morning, but before I even finished The Morning Spread, it was down to this number. I still like the price on the Brewers to win by two.
Bryce Miller's splits get worse on the road, and he has severely struggled recently. In his last six starts, he has allowed five, four, two, five, two, and four earned runs, posting an 0-4 record during that stretch. He won't get much run support tonight, as the Mariners hit just .219 against lefties, and they face a southpaw stud tonight.
Kyle Harrison has a 1.38 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP at home this year, where Milwaukee is 41-22. He's allowed just three total earned runs in his last six starts at home, and he should have no problem shutting down the M's tonight.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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