MLB Expert Picks for 8/17: Sides, Totals and a Player Prop Parlay
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Mon Aug 17, 2026, 1:55 pm ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
mlb
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+1.5
-170
9
+100o
+120
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-1.5
150
9
-115u
-130
Our MLB experts dove into Monday's slate and surprisingly found four picks worth wagering on, including a two team player prop parlay for +186! Keep reading for their analysis and picks below.
- MLB YTD
- 81-60-1 (57.5%)
- +19.08u
- Average Odds: +100
Check out the best odds on the market at our top online sportsbooks.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox MLB Picks
Jarren Duran and the Red Sox are 20-10 since the All Star Break
Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox Pitching Matchup
- Arizona Diamondbacks: LHP Mitch Bratt (1-1, 3.74 ERA, 1.40 WHIP)
- Boston Red Sox: LHP Alec Gamboa (0-0, 1.59 ERA, 1.12 WHIP)
Best Bet: AZ/BOS F5 Over 4.5 (-105) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Both of these teams are tossing out southpaws tonight at Fenway Park, and both dugouts smash them. Mitch Bratt's ERA explodes on the road up to 5.63, and Gamboa is just a relief guy. We'll get plenty of other Red Sox arms as well. The Snakes hit .244 overall, .261 in August, .263 over the last 30 days and .277 against left handed pitchers.
The Red Sox are just as good. Boston bats .248 overall, .250 at home, .263 last 30 days, .267 last two weeks and .257 against lefties. Look for the offenses to start off hot tonight, and I also endorse the full game over nine.
Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals MLB Picks
Wacha starts for Kansas City tonight in Kauffman Stadium
Athletics vs. Royals Pitching Matchup
- Athletics: RHP Mason Barnett (1-3, 6.16 ERA, 1.45 WHIP)
- Kansas City Royals: RHP Michael Wacha (5-8, 3.46 ERA, 1.15 WHIP)
Best Bet: Royals F5 -0.5 (-130) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Pay the juiceman and get the Royals to win the first five tonight. Mason Barnett and the Athletics suck. He's allowed five, five, three, two and three in his last few outings, good for a 9.42 ERA over his last 17.2 innings. The Royals are significantly better hitters at home, jumping from .242 overall to .261 as a team at Kauffman. I do not want to back Kansas City's bullpen at all, so we are only going with the first five tonight.
Wacha's splits improve at home with a sub 3.00 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 10 starts, plus overall he's top 30 in both of those categories overall across the league. He gave up three on the road to the Dodgers last time out, but prior to that he only allowed one, one, two, and one earned runs in four straight starts.
Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins MLB Picks
Martin Perez leads the Braves into Target Field to take on the Twins
Braves vs. Twins Pitching Matchup
- Atlanta Braves: LHP Martin Perez (8-6, 2.96 ERA, 1.15 WHIP)
- Minnesota Twins: RHP Bailey Ober (7-4, 4.64 ERA, 1.23 WHIP)
Best Bet: Braves ML (-122) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
For starters, the BN Prediction Engine likes the Braves at -128 in this game, so we are already getting some perceived value from one model. Atlanta has been strong all year long, even on the road, and the Twins struggle against southpaws.
Minnesota has lost three straight games, scoring just seven runs across that stretch. The slump goes back a while, going 4-10 in their last 14 contests. They do hit .249 at home, but just .232 against lefties, down 13 points from their season average, plus they've been hitting just .234 over the last month.
Martin Perez has pitched 16 scoreless innings across three starts in August, posting a 0.69 WHIP. Nice. Give me Atlanta.
Two Man Player Prop Parlay MLB Picks
Cristopher Sanchez faces the Marlins for the first time this season tonight at home
Best Bet: Blake Snell/Cristopher Sanchez 7+ Ks Each (+186) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Let's break this down.
Sanchez pitches at home against the Marlins, where he averages 1.17 strikeouts per inning. The Miami Marlins have a K% of 24.5% overall this year, but that increases to 25.1% on the road and 26.5% against left handed pitchers. Now they face one of the best in the business. Sanchez has cleared this line in 14/17 outings where he completes at least six innings.
Snell has 17 total strikeouts in just nine innings in two starts this year, clearing this line in both outings. Now he faces the Rockies. Yes, it is in Coors, but I am not worried about the host's bats. For what it's worth, dating back to 2023, Snell has had double digits strikeouts in his last four starts against Colorado, and at least nine in six straight.
Regardless, Colorado's K% is just as bad as Miami's. Overall, they do so every fourth batter, striking out 25.3% of the time. Now at Coors, that number is down to 23.9%, duh. Hitter's park. But against lefties, that number inflates to 27.4%. There will plenty of opportunity for Snell to sit down these batters, and I would be comfortable laddering him up to ten instead of this two man parlay.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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