MLB Bets for Sunday, May 24: Can Philly Keep Crushing Lefties?
Written by: Danny Burke
Published: Sun May 24, 2026, 12:24 pm ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
mlb
A full slate of Major League Baseball action awaits us on this Sunday, and I'm excited to dive into the slate.
Below, I've got a few plays that I'll be investing in, so let's take a look at my MLB bets for Sunday, May 24.
MLB Bets for Sunday, May 24
Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies
The young left-hander, Parker Messick, has been a revelation for the Guardians this season. He's 5-1 through 10 starts with a 2.45 ERA, 3.04 xFIP, 45% ground ball rate and a 21% strikeout-to-walk ratio.
He gets the start on Sunday in an attempt to win the rubber match, and the series, against the Phillies. After looking at just a handful of the metrics in Messick's profile, it would appear there isn't much to pick apart in his game. While that does appear to be true, there is a cloud of danger looming nearby in the form of Philadelphia's bats.
Since the start of May, the Phillies have been destroying southpaws. They rank first in both OPS (.896) and ISO (.248), while also sitting second in wRC+ (148).
Messick has been outstanding this season, but every pitcher inevitably suffers a hiccup, and it feels like this could be his spot.
On the flip side, Philadelphia is going to have to hope that right-hander Andrew Painter can hold his own this afternoon.
Unlike Messick, Painter's concerns come from his own stat sheet, not the opposition's. Painter holds a 5.22 ERA, 4.62 expected ERA and 4.31 xFIP. There is slight optimism in seeing his 37% hard-hit rate, 9% barrel rate and 4.20 SIERA. Additionally, over his past two starts, he's allowed just three earned runs on seven hits across 11 innings of work.
Unlike the Phillies, the Guardians' bats have not been as explosive, as they are hitting a 97 wRC+, .687 OPS and .146 ISO over the past month against righties.
We're getting a solid price with the home team, which also has the more powerful lineup, and that's the side I'll be investing in.
Bet: Phillies Moneyline: (-103)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers
This is going to be a fascinating matchup. We took a piece of the Brewers in Game 1 of this series on Friday evening, and Milwaukee came through with a 5-1 win. The defending World Series champions responded accordingly in Game 2, though, with an 11-3 victory.
In Game 3, we see the Dodgers as sizable favorites, hovering over -160 at most sportsbooks. That seems a bit steep given how well the Brewers have been hitting.
Since the beginning of May, the Brew Crew has a 112 wRC+ (5th) and a .738 OPS (6th) against righties. During that same span, Los Angeles has a 113 wRC+ (4th) and a .741 OPS (5th). So, considering how evenly matched these offenses are, why are we able to take Milwaukee at a price of +140?
That has to do with their starting pitcher, Brandon Sproat. His 5.75 ERA, 4.46 xFIP and 20% HR/FB rate are far from inspiring. However, perhaps we can justify taking such a juicy price after seeing his 42% ground ball rate, 40% hard-hit rate and sub-10% barrel rate. The numbers aren't amazing, but they're manageable.
On the flip side, Yoshinobu Yamamoto has a steady 3.32 ERA and 3.20 xFIP while producing grounders at a 44% ground ball rate. His hard-hit rate is over 42% and his barrel rate is floating around 16%, so there is some susceptibility to powerful contact from Yamamoto.
There's enough data to justify taking such an appealing price on the home underdog.
Play: Brewers Moneyline (+140)
Chicago White Sox vs San Francisco Giants
Another rubber match is happening on the West Coast, where the Chicago White Sox and San Francisco Giants battle for their second win of this three-game set.
It's a showdown between southpaws Noah Schultz and Robbie Ray this afternoon.
Ray's efforts this year haven't been ideal, with his 4.28 ERA, 5.19 xERA and 4.41 xFIP. What's even worse is his 30% ground ball rate and 16% HR/FB ratio. His numbers have been altered drastically by his road performances, which included a 4.1-inning outing in Arizona during his last start in which he allowed 11 hits and nine earned runs.
The splits are massive. At home, Ray has a 1.91 ERA and .274 wOBA compared to a 6.84 ERA and .414 wOBA on the road.
On the other side, Schultz is a pitcher who struggles a bit more away from home, too, though his splits aren't as egregious. At Guaranteed Rate Field, he has a 4.91 ERA and a .292 wOBA allowed. Away from Chicago, his ERA is 4.95 and his wOBA allowed is .319.
Overall, his ERA is 4.93, his xERA is 5.02 and his xFIP is 5.00. What's also concerning is his walk rate of five batters per nine innings, 32.6% ground ball rate and 63% left-on-base percentage.
There's plenty to be worried about with both arms in today's meeting, but if I had to put stock in one, I'd choose the veteran who has plenty of familiarity in this ballpark.
The White Sox bats have been much better lately, but I don't expect the ball to be flying much at Oracle Park anyhow. Look for the Giants to lock in the series win this afternoon.
Bet: Giants Moneyline (-115)
MLB Bets:
- Phillies Moneyline (-103 at Lucky Rebel)
- Brewers Moneyline (+140 at Lucky Rebel)
- Giants Moneyline (-115 at Lucky Rebel)
Still Didn't Get Your MLB Fix?
Follow me on X @dannyburke5 for all my picks, analysis and plenty more. Also be sure to follow Betting News on 'X' and Twitch to catch us on stream! Betting News is also on TikTok! Follow us for more picks and news every day and check out our Free Expert Picks for every major sports league.
More MLB News
MLB Betting News
(6/6) MLB | The Daily Dinger Report — Saturday Dingers
Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly
Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER
Check Out All of Our Betting Resources at Betting News
Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Betting News makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.