MLB Best Bets & Predictions for Saturday, May 30: Count on the Cubbies
Written by: Danny Burke
Published: Sat May 30, 2026, 10:36 am ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
mlb
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-1.5
130
8
-105u
-126
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+1.5
-140
8
-110o
+130
Happy Saturday, everybody! A solid lineup of baseball games is in store for us this afternoon and beyond, and I've got a couple of spots that are calling my name.
So, without further ado, let's take a look at my two MLB best bets and predictions for Saturday, May 30.
MLB Best Bets & Predictions for Saturday, May 30
Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals
After finally snapping their 10-game losing streak, Major League Baseball's biggest enigma looks to secure their third win in the last four games when they take on their division rival St. Louis Cardinals this afternoon.
The young right-hander Ben Brown is scheduled to start for the Cubbies, and his numbers have been great. He's converted from a bullpen arm to a starter due to the need for bodies in the rotation because of injuries, and he's made the most of it with his 2.01 ERA and 2.95 xFIP.
His last four outings have all been starts, and during that span he's pitched 19 innings, allowing four earned runs on 12 hits with an average xFIP of 2.46.
He'll be facing a Cardinals lineup that had been heating up heading into May but has since slowly cooled off. Over the past couple of weeks, their wRC+ has dipped to 97, their OPS sits at .685 and they have an ISO of .130 against righties during that span.
Of course, Chicago's bats have cooled off after putting together two separate winning streaks of 10-plus games earlier this year. Still, they own a 102 wRC+, .690 OPS and .131 ISO over that same stretch. Their numbers are better than the Cardinals', they have more talent throughout the lineup, and, most importantly, they have the more reliable pitcher on the mound today.
The starter for the home team is Kyle Leahy, who is 5-3 through 10 starts but owns a 4.44 ERA, 6.31 expected ERA and 4.94 FIP. He's susceptible to the long ball with a 17% HR/FB rate, and he has an egregious 50% hard-hit rate and 12% barrel rate.
The Cubs should find their offensive mojo this afternoon against a struggling pitcher in Leahy.
Best Bet: Cubs Moneyline (-138)
San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies
A battle of the bads will take place in the Mile High City when the Rockies host the Giants at 9:10 p.m. ET.
It's Adrian Houser who gets the start for San Francisco, while Ryan Feltner takes the mound for the home team. An appealing pitching matchup, this is not.
Nevertheless, I do see a bit of value with the Rockies. I can't remember the last time I've written those words.
Feltner has been bad, there's no doubt about that, but Houser has been worse. Feltner also has the familiarity advantage at Coors Field, and despite his 6.30 ERA, his xFIP sits much lower at 4.33. He's also generating ground balls at a 43% clip and has allowed just four earned runs over his last two starts, both at home against the Dodgers and Padres. His xFIP checked in at 3.57 and 2.27 in those outings, respectively.
Houser's 4.90 SIERA and 46% hard-hit rate could spell disaster at Coors Field, along with his 5.30 ERA, 5.53 xERA and 5.06 FIP. At home, he owns a 3.79 xFIP, but that number jumps to 5.14 on the road. This does not shape up as a favorable outing for Houser, and I'm willing to put money behind that assumption.
Bet: Rockies Moneyline (+101)
MLB Best Bets:
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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