MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, April 8: Pumping up the Padres
Written by: Danny Burke
Published: Wed Apr 08, 2026, 12:02 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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What's going on, folks? Happy Wednesday to all of you out there.
We ended up splitting our MLB picks yesterday, going 2-2 and losing 0.32 units. That brings us to an overall record of 17-10-1, up +6.85 units on the season.
Let's bounce back with my MLB best bets for Wednesday, April 8.
MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, April 8
San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates
The first game of Wednesday's slate is set to get underway at 12:35 PM ET, and I'm locked in on a moneyline bet.
We've got a pair of right-handers taking the bump, with Michael King going for the Padres and Mitch Keller for the Pirates.
Through King's two starts, he's gone 10.2 innings, blanking the Tigers in his first outing before allowing four runs on seven hits at Fenway against the Red Sox.
His ERA sits at 3.38, with a slightly higher FIP at 4.00, but I still have confidence in him here. His BABIP is just .269, his HR/FB rate is below 10%, and he's generating ground balls at a 42% clip. He's also not getting pummeled, as his hard-hit rate is just 26%.
On the other side, Keller has earned more trust early on. He's allowed just two earned runs on nine hits across 12 innings, good for a 1.50 ERA.
I'm not buying it, though. His xFIP sits at 4.21, his strikeout-to-walk rate is just 6.4%, and his SIERA is 4.68.
The Pirates' bats have been hotter to start the season, but the Padres' overall talent still clears, and I expect that to show up in this rubber match.
Bet: Padres Moneyline (-110)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue Jays
After starting the season with three straight wins, the Toronto Blue Jays have dropped seven of their last eight, including six in a row.
The Dodgers handled business in the series opener against the Blue Jays, winning 14-2, and followed it up with a 4-1 victory on Tuesday night. Still, I don't expect Toronto to go down quietly, and I love their value on the moneyline today.
I've always been a big Dylan Cease fan, and I'm hoping he can deliver for me today. Through two starts this season, he owns a 2.79 ERA with an even better 0.98 FIP. Even more impressive, he's allowed a 0% barrel rate and a 24% hard-hit rate.
Yes, those outings came against the Athletics and White Sox, and facing the Dodgers lineup is a completely different challenge, but I still have faith in the 30-year-old.
Meanwhile, Shohei Ohtani takes the bump for his second start of the season. In his first, he tossed six scoreless innings against the Guardians, allowing just one hit. He did walk three, but also struck out six. As wonderful as that appeared, his xFIP for that outing did come out to 4.72.
It's never easy to fade Ohtani, but if there's a spot to do it, this is it. The Blue Jays should be playing with urgency, trying to avoid a three-game sweep at home against the team that beat them in last year's World Series. If they can't get up for this one, then what are we doing?
Bet: Blue Jays Moneyline (+135)
Chicago Cubs vs Tampa Bay Rays
The Chicago Cubs finally looked like a competent Major League Baseball team last night, rolling to a 9-2 win over the Tampa Bay Rays.
I don't think that momentum carries over into Wednesday's game, though.
Colin Rea is set to start for Chicago, and he's not exactly the arm you want in a rubber match.
Both of Rea's appearances this season have come out of the bullpen. He tossed three innings against the Angels, allowing two runs on four hits, and followed that up with 3.1 innings in Cleveland, where he allowed four hits and one run.
His ERA sits at 4.26, with an expected ERA of 5.12. Interestingly, his FIP is 3.15, while his xFIP comes in at 1.95.
The numbers are a bit all over the place, making him a tricky evaluation, especially now that he's being stretched out as a starter due to the Cubs' rotation injuries.
Rea's BABIP sits at .412 with a 1.42 WHIP, along with an 11% barrel rate and a 55.6% hard-hit rate. Those are the numbers that stand out most to me and probably paint a more accurate picture of the arm he has.
As for the home team, right-hander Joe Boyle gets the nod. The 6-foot-8, 26-year-old has tossed 6.1 innings through two starts, allowing four earned runs on seven hits. Impressively, he's struck out 13 batters while walking just three.
His ERA sits at 3.18, but his FIP comes in at 1.65. There are a lot of promising numbers for the statuesque righty, and I'm going to invest in them today.
Bet: Rays Moneyline (-106)
Best Bets:
MLB Record: 17-10-1 (+6.85 units)
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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