MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, April 15: No way Jose

Happy Wednesday, everyone! Hope your day's off to a solid start.

Digging through tonight's MLB slate, I found a couple of plays that stand out above the rest. Let's get into my top MLB best bets for Wednesday, April 15.

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves

A rubber match will take place in Atlanta, where Bryce Elder and the Braves look to hold onto their home field advantage against Chris Paddack and the Miami Marlins.

There's a lot to like about Elder's season so far. Through three starts, he's worked to a 1.02 ERA and 2.94 FIP, while generating a strong 46% ground ball rate to go along with a .261 BABIP. He's also limited hard contact at an impressive clip, posting a 36% hard-hit rate and just a 2% barrel rate.

As for the opposing starter, the same can't be said. Paddack owns a 6.14 ERA with a 19% HR/FB rate and .333 BABIP through two starts and three total appearances. His underlying contact profile isn't encouraging either, with a 44% hard-hit rate and an 8% barrel rate.

To give him a bit of credit, his 3.98 xFIP suggests there could be some positive regression on the horizon. The problem is, this is a tough spot for it to show up against one of the hottest lineups in baseball.

Atlanta currently ranks fourth in both wRC+ (122) and OPS (.792) against right-handed pitching. I expect the Braves' offense to stay hot, do enough damage against Paddack, and put themselves in a position to not only win, but cover the run line as well.

Braves Run Line -1.5 (+125)

Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros

Our other play on Wednesday night's MLB slate takes us to Houston, where the Astros look to pick up another win against the Colorado Rockies.

Last night, Houston narrowly held on in the series opener with a 7-6 victory. Tonight, I'm expecting another win, but this time with a bit more breathing room.

Houston has been crushing southpaws this season, ranking third in wRC+ (128), ISO (.193) and OPS (.799). This is about as bad of a matchup as Quintana could ask for.

There's also a potential for the Astros to have an extra pep in their step, as Spencer Arrighetti makes his first start of the season after recovering from a broken right thumb and elbow inflammation. While his 2025 numbers across seven starts weren't anything special, he did look sharp in three Triple-A outings, posting a 1.26 ERA with a 3.48 xFIP.

As for Colorado, they were a fun story for a handful of days, but following their four-game win streak, they've now dropped five in a row – and I'm expecting that number to reach six by the end of the night.

Astros Run Line -1.5 (+110)

MLB Bets:

• Braves -1.5 (+125 at Lucky Rebel)
• Astros -1.5 (+110 at Lucky Rebel)

MLB Record: 26-19-1 (+6.17 units)

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