MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, March 31: Making Moves on Miami
Written by: Danny Burke
Published: Tue Mar 31, 2026, 1:34 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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What's up, everyone? Welcome back to our action on the diamond. We're coming off a 2-0 night on Monday, good for +2.4 units on a pair of run line cashes, bringing us to 7-2-1 overall for +5.6 units.
We'll look to keep that rolling with my MLB best bets for Tuesday's slate.
Marlins -1.5 (+140) vs White Sox
Well, the Chicago White Sox finally found their way into the win column with a 9-4 victory over the Miami Marlins on Monday night. Prior to that, they were swept in a three-game set by the Milwaukee Brewers.
I like that Miami dropped Game 1 against the White Sox, because tonight should set up as a strong bounce-back spot for them.
The 30-year-old right-hander Janson Junk is slated to start for the home favorite. Junk went 6-4 with a 4.17 ERA as a member of the Marlins last season. However, he also posted a 3.14 FIP, a 6.0% HR/FB rate and a 40.6% ground ball rate.
I do believe the White Sox will be an improving group throughout the season, but I don't think we're going to see that pan out quite yet.
Junk should be in a prime position to post strong numbers against a weaker White Sox lineup.
What stands out even more in this matchup is the potential for the Marlins offense to come alive against Erick Fedde.
Fedde has always been a fun arm to fade, and I'm eager to do it once again. He's coming off a 2025 season in which he posted a 5.49 ERA and a 5.30 FIP. He walked over four batters per nine innings, while putting up just a 2.8% strikeout-to-walk ratio, which is impressively horrendous.
Through a small four-game sample, the Marlins are hitting to a 119 wRC+ and a .771 OPS versus righties. To be fair, the White Sox are above them with a 129 wRC+ and a .806 OPS, but I'm expecting those numbers to regress a bit against a solid pitcher in Junk tonight.
Giants Moneyline (-136) vs Padres
Logan Webb gets an opportunity to right his wrongs from his Opening Night embarrassment against the Yankees. In that outing, Webb lasted five innings, allowing nine hits and six earned runs (seven total), but he did manage seven strikeouts and just one walk. As bad as the performance was, his xFIP came out to 2.79, so let's not press the panic button on Webb just yet.
We especially shouldn't when he's due to face a Padres offense that has started the season hitting just .149 against righties and is 5-for-26 with runners in scoring position. Additionally, Webb owns a 3.15 ERA in 17 career appearances against San Diego.
On the other side, the Padres are, for some reason, trusting German Marquez to take the bump. Marquez spent the last 10 seasons as a starting pitcher for the Colorado Rockies. It's tough to maintain quality numbers at Coors Field, but Marquez rarely offered hope, finishing last season with a 3-16 record, a 6.70 ERA and a 5.47 FIP.
He also posted just a 5.9% K/BB rate, a .336 BABIP, an 11% barrel rate and an insanely high hard-hit rate of 48.2%.
The Giants finally got their first win last night against the Padres, winning 3-2, and I'm thinking they can carry that momentum into tonight's game with their ace looking to bounce back and their offense chomping at the bit to face a poor pitcher in Marquez.
Best Bets:
MLB Record: 7-2-1 (+5.60 units)
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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