MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, April 28: Runs in Milwaukee?
Written by: Danny Burke
Last Update: Tue Apr 28, 2026, 12:43 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Last night was about as aggravating as it gets. The Guardians blew a 2-1 lead in the eighth and still had a chance in the ninth with runners on second and third and one out, but proceeded to strike out in back-to-back at-bats to end the game. Then the Pirates followed it up by blowing a 2-0 lead in the ninth.
Ah, the beauty of betting baseball, right?.
Nevertheless, we're heading back to the diamond looking to bounce back, so let's take a look at my MLB best bets for Tuesday, April 28.
MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, April 28
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers
In the land of dairy, the Milwaukee Brewers and Arizona Diamondbacks begin their three-game set this evening.
The Brewers snapped their four-game slide with a 5-0 win over the Pirates on Sunday and appear to be in another solid spot to generate some offense tonight.
They will face Merrill Kelly, who is not a pitcher I would typically associate with a favorable scoring spot for the opposing lineup, but this matchup feels different.
Even though Kelly has made just two starts totaling 9.2 innings, the results have been rough. He owns a 9.31 ERA, 13.60 xERA and 9.03 FIP, while allowing four home runs, 15 hits and 10 runs.
Milwaukee's bats have been slow to start the year, but this is a strong spot for them to get going.
As for Arizona, the offense has also been inconsistent through the first month, but there is still plenty of power in this lineup, and more than enough to create problems for Chad Patrick.
The 27-year-old right-hander has a 2.35 ERA, but his 4.01 xERA and 5.60 xFIP tell a different story. Patrick has appeared in five games, including three starts, and has not been nearly as sharp as the surface numbers suggest.
I am willing to bet against that and expect Patrick to run into trouble against this Diamondbacks lineup.
This total feels too low given the question marks with both starters, and it is likely being dragged down by each team's slow start at the plate. That said, both lineups have enough power to flip the script quickly in this matchup. I will look to take advantage of a 7.5 with slight juice to the over tonight.
Bet: Diamondbacks/Brewers Total Over 7.5 (-122)
Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves
Let's move things down to Truist Park, where the Atlanta Braves host the Detroit Tigers.
Left-hander Martin Perez is set to start for the home team, while righty Casey Mize gets the nod for the visitors.
There is a lot to like about this Braves team right now, but Perez is not necessarily one of them. Despite his 2.70 ERA suggesting otherwise, his 4.59 expected ERA, 4.63 FIP and 12.5% HR/FB rate all point toward regression.
Additionally, he will be facing a Tigers team that has been solid against southpaws since the start of April. Detroit ranks sixth in wRC+ (111), 10th in OPS (.738) and 11th in ISO (.162).
Don't be surprised to see the Tigers' bats come alive tonight.
On the other side, Mize offers much more promise with a 2.51 ERA, 3.22 xERA, 2.95 FIP and a HR/FB rate below 6%.
It is a tough ask to go against this Braves lineup right now, which is why I am not backing Detroit for the full game. Instead, I will target their first five innings moneyline, banking on Mize holding up early while the Tigers take advantage of a vulnerable arm in Perez.
Bet: Tigers First 5 Innings Moneyline (-110)
MLB Best Bets:
- Diamondbacks/Brewers Total Over 7.5 (-122 at Lucky Rebel)
- Tigers First 5 Innings Moneyline (-110 at Lucky Rebel)
MLB record: 35-30-1
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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